GINC 250 / Adaptive regulation

Trend · rank 118 of 250

Adaptive regulation

Governance & IntegrityGeoeconomics & Statecraftinstitutionsai

Regulators moving from fixed rulebooks to data-driven, iterative oversight as technology outruns legislation.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank118 of 250
Sensitivity17.4 · rank 61
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank35.8 · rank 133
Eigenvector4.2
Betweenness13.2
Links13 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite25.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
4HighAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
4HighHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
3ModerateRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
3ModerateDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highPublic-sector AI adoptionTechnology & Financials66
4HighState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
4HighPublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
4HighAI safety & governanceTechnology & Financials152
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
3ModerateAI-accelerated scienceTechnology & Financials56
3ModerateOfficial statistics & data capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft81
3ModerateOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
3ModerateAutomated AI researchTechnology & Financials119
3ModerateCivil service capability & payGeoeconomics & Statecraft125
3ModerateResearch & development intensityGeoeconomics & Statecraft136
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148