GINC 250 / Outsourcing & public-private delivery

Trend · rank 101 of 250

Outsourcing & public-private delivery

Governance & IntegrityGeoeconomics & Statecraftinstitutions

Public services and infrastructure run by private contractors, and the state's capacity to manage them in a crisis.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank101 of 250
Sensitivity9.7 · rank 181
Breadth0 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank55.6 · rank 30
Eigenvector8.2
Betweenness18.0
Links22 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite27.6

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
3ModerateDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
2LowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
2LowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
2LowSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
5Very highPublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
5Very highCivil service capability & payGeoeconomics & Statecraft125
4HighWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
4HighPublic-sector AI adoptionTechnology & Financials66
4HighOfficial statistics & data capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft81
4HighLocal & city government capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft96
3ModerateDeclining institutional trustSociety & Culture23
3ModerateTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
3ModerateErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
3ModerateTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
3ModerateFiscal rules & budget credibilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft58
3ModerateCorruption & kleptocracyGeoeconomics & Statecraft62
3ModerateWhole-of-society resilienceGeoeconomics & Statecraft76
3ModerateGlobal health governanceHealth & Modern Science77
3ModerateIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
3ModerateDigital public infrastructureTechnology & Financials103
3ModerateAdaptive regulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft118
3ModerateExecutive overreach & emergency powersSociety & Culture141
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
3ModerateAI safety & governanceTechnology & Financials152
3ModerateCitizen participation & deliberative democracySociety & Culture184