GINC 250 / Whole-of-society resilience

Trend · rank 76 of 250

Whole-of-society resilience

National SecurityGeoeconomics & Statecraftresilienceinstitutions

Civil preparedness as policy: household self-sufficiency, civil defence, exercises and the public's readiness to cope without services.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank76 of 250
Sensitivity27.1 · rank 16
Breadth5 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank28.5 · rank 179
Eigenvector1.4
Betweenness18.1
Links7 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite30.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
5Very highCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
5Very highCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
5Very highPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
4HighHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
3ModerateSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
2LowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
3ModerateState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
3ModeratePublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
3ModerateStrategic stockpiles & reservesGeoeconomics & Statecraft71
3ModerateLocal & city government capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft96
3ModeratePublic communication in crisisGeoeconomics & Statecraft100
3ModerateOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
3ModerateTelecom network resilienceTechnology & Financials107