GINC 250 / Public communication in crisis

Trend · rank 100 of 250

Public communication in crisis

Information & InfluenceGeoeconomics & Statecraftinformationresilience

The ability of authorities to reach and be believed by the public in an emergency, including when networks are down.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank100 of 250
Sensitivity22.9 · rank 31
Breadth5 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank31.6 · rank 154
Eigenvector1.5
Betweenness13.3
Links9 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite27.6

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
5Very highCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
5Very highPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
5Very highHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
4HighHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
3ModeratePolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
2LowMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighMisinformation & disinformationSociety & Culture65
3ModerateDeclining institutional trustSociety & Culture23
3ModerateForeign information manipulationSociety & Culture47
3ModerateStrategic stockpiles & reservesGeoeconomics & Statecraft71
3ModerateWhole-of-society resilienceGeoeconomics & Statecraft76
3ModerateConspiracy movements & science denialSociety & Culture149
3ModerateSynthetic media & deepfakesSociety & Culture150
3ModerateDecline of independent journalismSociety & Culture165
3ModeratePlatform power over public discourseSociety & Culture167