Which trends move the needle
Ranked by a composite of sensitivity to the scenarios and position in the trend network. Sensitivity is how strongly a trend bears on the scenarios, from 0 to 100; breadth is how many scenarios it scores High or above. The network measures are scaled so the highest trend is 100. Hover a column heading for its definition; select one to sort.
Technology & FinancialsConsumer, Food & RetailIndustrials, Manufacturing & TransportationHealth & Modern ScienceEnergy & EnvironmentSociety & CultureGeoeconomics & StatecraftCritical TechnologyStrategic InfrastructureNational SecurityHuman CapitalInformation & InfluenceGovernance & IntegrityFinancial StrengthProduction & InnovationTrade & InvestmentCircle size: sensitivity to the scenarios · link colour: the more sensitive of the two trends · 1848 links at Moderate similarity or above
Hover a trend to see its links; select it to open its page. Scroll to zoom and drag to move. Position comes from a force layout: trends that are alike sit together, and distance has no other meaning.
| 1 | Great-power competition | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 40.3 | 7/24 | 3 | 100.0 | 99.4 | 100.0 | 41 | 86.9 |
| 2 | State capacity & delivery | Governance & Integrity | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 59.7 | 13/24 | 1 | 86.8 | 11.3 | 54.5 | 27 | 78.1 |
| 3 | Supply-chain concentration | Trade & Investment | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 31.3 | 6/24 | 2 | 97.1 | 97.7 | 86.4 | 38 | 77.1 |
| 4 | Export controls & economic statecraft | Trade & Investment | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 27.8 | 6/24 | 3 | 92.2 | 99.3 | 32.9 | 39 | 62.8 |
| 5 | Sovereign debt accumulation | Financial Strength | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 28.5 | 3/24 | 2 | 74.8 | 21.7 | 80.9 | 29 | 59.9 |
| 6 | Shifting economic power | Trade & Investment | Society & Culture | 22.9 | 3/24 | 1 | 79.7 | 85.0 | 60.0 | 33 | 59.8 |
| 7 | Economic security policy | Trade & Investment | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 22.9 | 4/24 | 2 | 89.1 | 100.0 | 23.7 | 38 | 56.8 |
| 8 | Deglobalisation | Trade & Investment | Society & Culture | 31.3 | 4/24 | 3 | 79.7 | 81.3 | 10.2 | 31 | 55.0 |
| 9 | China's economic slowdown | Financial Strength | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 19.4 | 3/24 | · | 62.1 | 48.0 | 79.3 | 26 | 52.3 |
| 10 | Taiwan Strait tension | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 25.0 | 5/24 | 2 | 73.4 | 83.7 | 24.6 | 32 | 52.0 |
| 11 | Rise of middle powers | Information & Influence | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 24.3 | 4/24 | · | 73.7 | 81.3 | 23.8 | 30 | 51.3 |
| 12 | Weak social protection | Governance & Integrity | Society & Culture | 30.6 | 5/24 | · | 70.5 | 6.7 | 43.5 | 27 | 51.0 |
| 13 | Friend-shoring & regional trade blocs | Trade & Investment | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 19.4 | 4/24 | 1 | 80.3 | 90.6 | 19.5 | 33 | 50.1 |
| 14 | US policy volatility | Information & Influence | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 32.6 | 4/24 | 2 | 58.9 | 61.8 | 14.0 | 23 | 48.5 |
| 15 | Advanced semiconductors | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 22.9 | 5/24 | 2 | 60.4 | 50.2 | 47.0 | 25 | 47.9 |
| 16 | Alliance realignment & burden-shifting | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 19.4 | 5/24 | 1 | 66.6 | 69.0 | 35.9 | 28 | 47.1 |
| 17 | Compute scaling & AI infrastructure | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 16.7 | 2/24 | 1 | 46.3 | 13.0 | 98.0 | 19 | 45.9 |
| 18 | Weakening multilateral institutions | Information & Influence | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 33.3 | 6/24 | · | 51.9 | 46.0 | 15.7 | 18 | 45.6 |
| 19 | Industrial policy competition | Production & Innovation | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 20.1 | 4/24 | 1 | 64.7 | 64.6 | 30.9 | 28 | 45.5 |
| 20 | Armed conflict at post-war highs | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 27.8 | 6/24 | 1 | 57.7 | 48.2 | 17.7 | 20 | 44.3 |
| 21 | Hybrid & grey-zone warfare | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 18.8 | 3/24 | 1 | 64.9 | 46.8 | 32.1 | 27 | 43.1 |
| 22 | Climate change & physical risk | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 28.5 | 5/24 | 2 | 49.8 | 0.5 | 35.3 | 13 | 41.1 |
| 23 | Declining institutional trust | Information & Influence | Society & Culture | 28.5 | 5/24 | 2 | 53.2 | 4.5 | 25.1 | 18 | 40.5 |
| 24 | Sanctions evasion & shadow fleets | Trade & Investment | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 14.6 | 3/24 | · | 62.6 | 68.5 | 20.3 | 29 | 39.5 |
| 25 | Inequality | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 25.0 | 3/24 | · | 49.4 | 2.5 | 37.2 | 18 | 39.3 |
| 26 | Middle East instability | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 25.0 | 4/24 | 3 | 48.0 | 40.6 | 16.1 | 18 | 38.4 |
| 27 | Artificial intelligence | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 27.1 | 3/24 | 2 | 49.5 | 9.6 | 22.2 | 19 | 38.4 |
| 28 | Demographic pressure in young nations | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 18.1 | 4/24 | · | 46.2 | 1.5 | 60.8 | 16 | 38.3 |
| 29 | Energy import dependence | Trade & Investment | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 22.2 | 4/24 | 2 | 45.5 | 44.5 | 25.8 | 18 | 38.2 |
| 30 | Electrification of heat, transport & industry | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 16.7 | 3/24 | · | 50.4 | 0.5 | 58.6 | 19 | 38.1 |
| 31 | Commodity price volatility | Trade & Investment | Energy & Environment | 29.2 | 7/24 | · | 43.5 | 27.6 | 12.2 | 15 | 37.8 |
| 32 | Maritime chokepoint dependence | National Security | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 24.3 | 3/24 | 2 | 51.2 | 43.6 | 8.6 | 20 | 37.7 |
| 33 | Technical standards competition | Information & Influence | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 13.9 | 2/24 | · | 52.7 | 52.2 | 35.8 | 23 | 37.5 |
| 34 | Economic stagnation | Financial Strength | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 16.7 | 2/24 | · | 58.5 | 16.9 | 35.0 | 25 | 37.4 |
| 35 | Public procurement reform | Governance & Integrity | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 12.5 | 0/24 | · | 56.7 | 8.3 | 55.3 | 22 | 37.3 |
| 36 | Russia–NATO confrontation | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 20.8 | 4/24 | 2 | 58.2 | 52.9 | 1.7 | 22 | 37.0 |
| 37 | Rearmament & defence spending | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 17.4 | 3/24 | 1 | 59.7 | 56.1 | 6.9 | 22 | 36.5 |
| 38 | Private military & proxy forces | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 14.6 | 2/24 | · | 60.1 | 51.8 | 16.5 | 25 | 36.3 |
| 39 | Polarisation & populism | Governance & Integrity | Society & Culture | 30.6 | 5/24 | 1 | 42.1 | 3.1 | 12.8 | 14 | 36.0 |
| 40 | Pharmaceutical supply concentration | Trade & Investment | Health & Modern Science | 16.7 | 3/24 | 1 | 30.4 | 23.6 | 64.2 | 12 | 35.5 |
| 41 | Sovereign wealth & state capital | Trade & Investment | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 14.6 | 2/24 | · | 53.7 | 57.4 | 16.6 | 25 | 34.9 |
| 42 | Indo-Pacific maritime disputes | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 11.8 | 1/24 | · | 58.4 | 67.4 | 12.3 | 26 | 34.6 |
| 43 | Erosion of rights & civic freedoms | Governance & Integrity | Society & Culture | 13.9 | 1/24 | 1 | 62.6 | 6.5 | 28.9 | 25 | 34.5 |
| 44 | AI chips & accelerator supply | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 16.7 | 4/24 | 2 | 50.5 | 40.6 | 20.3 | 21 | 34.4 |
| 45 | Trade, shipping & logistics digitalisation | Trade & Investment | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 20.8 | 2/24 | · | 46.4 | 44.4 | 10.3 | 17 | 34.4 |
| 46 | Tariff escalation | Trade & Investment | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 18.1 | 3/24 | 2 | 52.6 | 54.8 | 4.6 | 21 | 34.3 |
| 47 | Foreign information manipulation | Information & Influence | Society & Culture | 17.4 | 2/24 | 2 | 50.0 | 11.8 | 31.8 | 19 | 34.2 |
| 48 | Infrastructure corridor competition | Trade & Investment | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 16.7 | 3/24 | · | 54.2 | 63.9 | 1.6 | 24 | 34.1 |
| 49 | Missile & long-range strike proliferation | National Security | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 15.3 | 3/24 | · | 55.8 | 50.4 | 10.6 | 22 | 34.1 |
| 50 | Digital sovereignty & data localisation | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 21.5 | 4/24 | 1 | 41.8 | 13.9 | 28.2 | 16 | 34.0 |
| 51 | Research security & science decoupling | Information & Influence | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 13.9 | 2/24 | · | 45.5 | 49.7 | 27.7 | 20 | 33.5 |
| 52 | Foreign direct investment slowdown | Trade & Investment | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 15.3 | 2/24 | · | 48.7 | 49.9 | 18.0 | 21 | 33.4 |
| 53 | Tax base erosion & global tax reform | Financial Strength | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 16.7 | 3/24 | 1 | 54.9 | 11.8 | 22.9 | 24 | 33.4 |
| 54 | Just-in-time logistics & thin inventories | Trade & Investment | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 19.4 | 3/24 | · | 44.3 | 38.1 | 15.2 | 16 | 33.1 |
| 55 | Renewable energy | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 13.9 | 2/24 | 1 | 51.3 | 0.8 | 41.5 | 19 | 33.1 |
| 56 | AI-accelerated science | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 16.7 | 5/24 | 1 | 35.1 | 3.0 | 54.4 | 12 | 32.9 |
| 57 | Aid retrenchment | Financial Strength | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 22.9 | 4/24 | · | 44.9 | 11.3 | 13.6 | 17 | 32.7 |
| 58 | Fiscal rules & budget credibility | Governance & Integrity | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 18.1 | 3/24 | · | 50.3 | 10.4 | 21.8 | 19 | 32.6 |
| 59 | Civil unrest | Governance & Integrity | Society & Culture | 26.4 | 3/24 | 1 | 39.2 | 5.0 | 13.3 | 13 | 32.6 |
| 60 | Nuclear & WMD proliferation | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 15.3 | 2/24 | · | 55.9 | 53.2 | 0.8 | 22 | 32.5 |
| 61 | Rare earth processing concentration | Trade & Investment | Energy & Environment | 16.0 | 3/24 | 2 | 47.1 | 51.0 | 12.6 | 20 | 32.4 |
| 62 | Corruption & kleptocracy | Governance & Integrity | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 19.4 | 4/24 | · | 52.6 | 6.2 | 14.5 | 19 | 32.3 |
| 63 | Frontier model concentration | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 14.6 | 2/24 | 2 | 47.3 | 13.3 | 34.9 | 20 | 32.3 |
| 64 | Fertiliser dependence | Trade & Investment | Consumer, Food & Retail | 19.4 | 4/24 | 2 | 36.3 | 26.1 | 28.7 | 13 | 32.3 |
| 65 | Misinformation & disinformation | Information & Influence | Society & Culture | 22.9 | 4/24 | 2 | 42.7 | 5.0 | 17.9 | 13 | 32.2 |
| 66 | Public-sector AI adoption | Governance & Integrity | Technology & Financials | 13.9 | 3/24 | · | 51.5 | 7.0 | 33.7 | 22 | 32.2 |
| 67 | Global South coalitions | Information & Influence | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 14.6 | 3/24 | · | 52.8 | 57.7 | 3.7 | 22 | 32.1 |
| 68 | Africa's demographic & economic rise | Trade & Investment | Society & Culture | 24.3 | 4/24 | 1 | 24.9 | 6.9 | 36.0 | 6 | 31.6 |
| 69 | Lithography & chip-tool chokepoints | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 13.2 | 3/24 | 1 | 47.6 | 45.3 | 19.2 | 20 | 31.5 |
| 70 | Trade finance & correspondent banking gaps | Trade & Investment | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 12.5 | 2/24 | · | 46.7 | 39.4 | 25.6 | 22 | 31.4 |
| 71 | Strategic stockpiles & reserves | Strategic Infrastructure | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 26.4 | 6/24 | 1 | 26.6 | 2.5 | 27.4 | 6 | 31.4 |
| 72 | Inflation & cost of living | Financial Strength | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 24.3 | 4/24 | · | 42.5 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 15 | 31.3 |
| 73 | Dollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentation | Financial Strength | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 13.9 | 2/24 | · | 53.4 | 32.8 | 12.4 | 23 | 31.1 |
| 74 | Capital concentration in AI | Financial Strength | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 11.8 | 3/24 | 1 | 40.3 | 10.3 | 50.1 | 19 | 31.0 |
| 75 | Reshoring & localised manufacturing | Production & Innovation | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 15.3 | 3/24 | · | 31.7 | 25.2 | 43.5 | 11 | 31.0 |
| 76 | Whole-of-society resilience | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 27.1 | 5/24 | · | 28.5 | 1.4 | 18.1 | 7 | 30.4 |
| 77 | Global health governance | Governance & Integrity | Health & Modern Science | 11.8 | 2/24 | 2 | 35.7 | 2.7 | 57.7 | 15 | 30.4 |
| 78 | Youth unemployment & lack of opportunity | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 19.4 | 3/24 | · | 43.6 | 2.5 | 19.9 | 15 | 30.3 |
| 79 | Climate finance & loss and damage | Financial Strength | Energy & Environment | 13.2 | 2/24 | · | 36.6 | 3.3 | 50.2 | 12 | 30.2 |
| 80 | Early-warning systems | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 14.6 | 2/24 | 1 | 46.3 | 0.4 | 32.3 | 15 | 30.2 |
| 81 | Official statistics & data capacity | Governance & Integrity | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 18.1 | 2/24 | · | 51.0 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 20 | 30.1 |
| 82 | Critical minerals supply | Trade & Investment | Energy & Environment | 15.3 | 3/24 | 1 | 44.3 | 47.7 | 8.2 | 19 | 29.9 |
| 83 | Illicit finance & beneficial ownership | Governance & Integrity | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 12.5 | 0/24 | · | 52.1 | 12.7 | 23.1 | 22 | 29.9 |
| 84 | Distributed power | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 11.8 | 3/24 | · | 49.9 | 0.9 | 34.3 | 19 | 29.8 |
| 85 | Soft power & cultural influence | Information & Influence | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 6.3 | 0/24 | · | 45.6 | 50.7 | 33.6 | 22 | 29.7 |
| 86 | Stablecoins & digital currencies | Financial Strength | Technology & Financials | 13.2 | 2/24 | · | 43.3 | 11.2 | 32.3 | 17 | 29.4 |
| 87 | Arctic & polar competition | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 9.7 | 0/24 | · | 54.0 | 60.0 | 2.9 | 24 | 29.3 |
| 88 | Data-centre power demand | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 10.4 | 2/24 | · | 26.7 | 1.2 | 70.4 | 11 | 29.2 |
| 89 | Creditor fragmentation | Financial Strength | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 11.1 | 2/24 | 1 | 49.5 | 24.6 | 22.0 | 21 | 29.1 |
| 90 | Development finance as influence | Information & Influence | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 15.3 | 2/24 | · | 43.1 | 35.5 | 11.4 | 18 | 29.0 |
| 91 | Urbanisation | Strategic Infrastructure | Society & Culture | 19.4 | 3/24 | · | 25.4 | 0.3 | 40.8 | 8 | 28.8 |
| 92 | Brain drain & talent migration | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 17.4 | 2/24 | · | 45.0 | 1.9 | 17.2 | 17 | 28.8 |
| 93 | Defence industrial base & munitions | National Security | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 15.3 | 3/24 | · | 38.5 | 34.1 | 16.6 | 16 | 28.5 |
| 94 | Breadbasket & food export concentration | Trade & Investment | Energy & Environment | 19.4 | 2/24 | 2 | 31.6 | 17.8 | 20.9 | 10 | 28.5 |
| 95 | Fossil fuel resurgence | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 17.4 | 4/24 | 1 | 27.4 | 5.6 | 39.4 | 8 | 28.3 |
| 96 | Local & city government capacity | Governance & Integrity | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 18.8 | 2/24 | · | 37.9 | 3.4 | 19.3 | 13 | 28.1 |
| 97 | AI-mediated information | Information & Influence | Technology & Financials | 9.0 | 1/24 | · | 41.0 | 5.2 | 44.8 | 19 | 27.8 |
| 98 | Drone & autonomous warfare | National Security | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 16.0 | 2/24 | 1 | 36.8 | 24.8 | 17.4 | 14 | 27.7 |
| 99 | Terrorism & violent extremism | National Security | Society & Culture | 12.5 | 1/24 | · | 42.7 | 26.3 | 19.3 | 17 | 27.7 |
| 100 | Public communication in crisis | Information & Influence | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 22.9 | 5/24 | · | 31.6 | 1.5 | 13.3 | 9 | 27.6 |
| 101 | Outsourcing & public-private delivery | Governance & Integrity | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 9.7 | 0/24 | · | 55.6 | 8.2 | 18.0 | 22 | 27.6 |
| 102 | Cyber insecurity | National Security | Technology & Financials | 18.8 | 3/24 | 1 | 30.3 | 10.9 | 21.8 | 10 | 27.1 |
| 103 | Digital public infrastructure | Governance & Integrity | Technology & Financials | 20.1 | 3/24 | 1 | 32.4 | 2.4 | 18.2 | 11 | 27.1 |
| 104 | Militarisation of space | National Security | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 9.7 | 1/24 | · | 36.8 | 23.1 | 34.1 | 17 | 26.7 |
| 105 | Earth system tipping points | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 12.5 | 3/24 | · | 39.8 | 0.3 | 31.5 | 13 | 26.6 |
| 106 | Ageing population | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 13.9 | 1/24 | 1 | 38.9 | 1.5 | 27.2 | 14 | 26.6 |
| 107 | Telecom network resilience | Strategic Infrastructure | Technology & Financials | 13.2 | 4/24 | 1 | 34.4 | 0.8 | 36.6 | 12 | 26.6 |
| 108 | Grid enhancement | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 20.1 | 3/24 | 2 | 38.8 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 13 | 26.6 |
| 109 | Infrastructure ageing | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 10.4 | 3/24 | · | 41.7 | 0.8 | 34.8 | 17 | 26.5 |
| 110 | Defence technology | National Security | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 15.3 | 3/24 | · | 38.6 | 32.6 | 6.3 | 14 | 26.3 |
| 111 | Batteries & energy storage | Production & Innovation | Energy & Environment | 16.7 | 4/24 | 1 | 40.5 | 0.6 | 14.2 | 15 | 26.2 |
| 112 | Malnutrition | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 16.0 | 2/24 | 2 | 24.0 | 1.1 | 40.5 | 8 | 26.1 |
| 113 | Informal employment | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 18.1 | 2/24 | · | 39.0 | 1.4 | 9.7 | 13 | 25.9 |
| 114 | Peak oil demand & petrostate exposure | Financial Strength | Energy & Environment | 18.8 | 4/24 | 1 | 28.0 | 6.6 | 20.9 | 9 | 25.8 |
| 115 | Diplomatic capacity under strain | Information & Influence | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 15.3 | 2/24 | · | 36.0 | 38.2 | 4.0 | 14 | 25.7 |
| 116 | State fragility & intrastate violence | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 19.4 | 4/24 | 1 | 30.1 | 14.7 | 10.3 | 10 | 25.6 |
| 117 | Manufacturing overcapacity | Production & Innovation | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 13.2 | 2/24 | · | 38.0 | 33.5 | 9.5 | 15 | 25.5 |
| 118 | Adaptive regulation | Governance & Integrity | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 17.4 | 3/24 | · | 35.8 | 4.2 | 13.2 | 13 | 25.4 |
| 119 | Automated AI research | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 11.1 | 2/24 | 1 | 42.6 | 6.4 | 22.6 | 18 | 25.4 |
| 120 | Climate migration | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 11.8 | 3/24 | 1 | 30.0 | 0.5 | 41.5 | 11 | 25.3 |
| 121 | Carbon border adjustments | Trade & Investment | Energy & Environment | 6.3 | 0/24 | · | 34.6 | 35.4 | 35.3 | 16 | 25.2 |
| 122 | Arms control erosion | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 13.9 | 3/24 | 1 | 39.4 | 36.3 | 1.0 | 17 | 25.0 |
| 123 | Climate adaptation & resilience | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 14.6 | 3/24 | 1 | 43.8 | 0.5 | 9.0 | 13 | 24.8 |
| 124 | Port & shipping concentration | Strategic Infrastructure | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 15.3 | 1/24 | · | 30.1 | 18.7 | 17.3 | 10 | 24.6 |
| 125 | Civil service capability & pay | Governance & Integrity | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 15.3 | 1/24 | · | 45.5 | 5.6 | 0.4 | 18 | 24.5 |
| 126 | Subsea cable & pipeline vulnerability | Strategic Infrastructure | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 14.6 | 2/24 | 1 | 29.9 | 6.6 | 25.6 | 12 | 24.5 |
| 127 | Regional medicines manufacturing | Production & Innovation | Health & Modern Science | 15.3 | 4/24 | 1 | 26.4 | 2.3 | 30.5 | 8 | 24.5 |
| 128 | AI agents & knowledge-work automation | Human Capital | Technology & Financials | 11.1 | 2/24 | 1 | 40.7 | 5.0 | 20.9 | 18 | 24.3 |
| 129 | Healthcare system reform | Human Capital | Health & Modern Science | 15.3 | 3/24 | · | 36.1 | 1.5 | 14.7 | 14 | 24.2 |
| 130 | Remittance dependence | Financial Strength | Society & Culture | 13.9 | 1/24 | · | 38.7 | 9.7 | 10.6 | 17 | 24.0 |
| 131 | Critical infrastructure protection | Strategic Infrastructure | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 16.0 | 2/24 | 2 | 30.9 | 1.4 | 19.2 | 11 | 24.0 |
| 132 | Graduate labour market squeeze | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 9.7 | 2/24 | 1 | 42.6 | 4.3 | 20.5 | 19 | 23.8 |
| 133 | Modern vaccines | Critical Technology | Health & Modern Science | 13.9 | 3/24 | 3 | 35.1 | 0.5 | 19.5 | 12 | 23.8 |
| 134 | Open-weight AI diffusion | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 12.5 | 2/24 | · | 43.5 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 19 | 23.5 |
| 135 | Health workforce shortage | Human Capital | Health & Modern Science | 14.6 | 3/24 | 1 | 33.8 | 1.5 | 17.1 | 13 | 23.5 |
| 136 | Research & development intensity | Production & Innovation | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 15.3 | 1/24 | · | 28.0 | 7.2 | 20.1 | 10 | 23.4 |
| 137 | Talent & labour shortages | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 11.1 | 0/24 | · | 41.3 | 1.7 | 16.0 | 17 | 23.2 |
| 138 | Agricultural technology | Production & Innovation | Consumer, Food & Retail | 12.5 | 2/24 | 1 | 25.3 | 2.0 | 34.2 | 8 | 23.0 |
| 139 | Regional trade agreements | Trade & Investment | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 10.4 | 3/24 | · | 37.6 | 46.7 | 0.3 | 16 | 23.0 |
| 140 | Religious & identity nationalism | Information & Influence | Society & Culture | 10.4 | 2/24 | · | 39.8 | 8.3 | 15.0 | 16 | 22.7 |
| 141 | Executive overreach & emergency powers | Governance & Integrity | Society & Culture | 11.1 | 2/24 | · | 47.5 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 19 | 22.7 |
| 142 | AI drug development | Production & Innovation | Health & Modern Science | 12.5 | 3/24 | 1 | 32.5 | 0.9 | 20.8 | 11 | 22.4 |
| 143 | Pension & care system strain | Financial Strength | Society & Culture | 11.1 | 1/24 | 1 | 31.3 | 5.2 | 24.6 | 14 | 22.3 |
| 144 | Asylum & migration system strain | Governance & Integrity | Society & Culture | 12.5 | 2/24 | 1 | 30.6 | 2.6 | 22.1 | 12 | 22.2 |
| 145 | Espionage & insider threat | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 11.1 | 2/24 | · | 35.6 | 29.9 | 5.1 | 15 | 22.1 |
| 146 | Rule of law & judicial independence | Governance & Integrity | Society & Culture | 9.7 | 1/24 | 1 | 45.3 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 18 | 22.1 |
| 147 | Asset bubbles & stretched valuations | Financial Strength | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 9.0 | 2/24 | 1 | 40.0 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 17 | 22.0 |
| 148 | Regulatory capture & lobbying power | Governance & Integrity | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 10.4 | 0/24 | · | 46.4 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 21 | 22.0 |
| 149 | Conspiracy movements & science denial | Information & Influence | Society & Culture | 16.7 | 3/24 | · | 35.2 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 12 | 22.0 |
| 150 | Synthetic media & deepfakes | Information & Influence | Society & Culture | 11.8 | 2/24 | · | 38.2 | 3.4 | 11.3 | 14 | 21.9 |
| 151 | Child & maternal health | Human Capital | Health & Modern Science | 15.3 | 2/24 | · | 32.7 | 0.6 | 8.8 | 13 | 21.9 |
| 152 | AI safety & governance | Governance & Integrity | Technology & Financials | 10.4 | 2/24 | 1 | 41.2 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 19 | 21.8 |
| 153 | Fuel logistics & refining capacity | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 14.6 | 2/24 | 1 | 28.8 | 3.3 | 15.3 | 9 | 21.8 |
| 154 | Learning loss & education quality | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 13.9 | 2/24 | · | 34.7 | 1.3 | 9.2 | 12 | 21.7 |
| 155 | Bank resilience & deposit flight | Financial Strength | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 8.3 | 1/24 | 1 | 43.2 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 19 | 21.6 |
| 156 | Water stress & transboundary water | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 18.8 | 3/24 | 1 | 30.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 8 | 21.6 |
| 157 | Humanoid robotics | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 6.3 | 2/24 | · | 42.8 | 10.7 | 17.1 | 21 | 21.5 |
| 158 | Synthetic biology & biomanufacturing | Critical Technology | Health & Modern Science | 16.7 | 4/24 | · | 30.2 | 0.4 | 6.0 | 7 | 21.5 |
| 159 | Non-bank finance growth | Financial Strength | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 8.3 | 1/24 | 1 | 44.0 | 13.8 | 6.3 | 19 | 21.4 |
| 160 | Central bank independence under pressure | Governance & Integrity | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 10.4 | 2/24 | · | 39.7 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 17 | 21.2 |
| 161 | Election integrity & interference | Information & Influence | Society & Culture | 9.7 | 2/24 | 1 | 44.3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 17 | 21.1 |
| 162 | Chronic disease burden | Human Capital | Health & Modern Science | 7.6 | 1/24 | 1 | 37.8 | 0.6 | 22.2 | 17 | 21.0 |
| 163 | Zoonotic spillover & pandemic risk | Human Capital | Health & Modern Science | 13.9 | 2/24 | 2 | 30.7 | 0.4 | 11.6 | 12 | 20.9 |
| 164 | Loss of firm & black-start capacity | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 11.8 | 2/24 | 1 | 37.1 | 0.8 | 8.5 | 14 | 20.8 |
| 165 | Decline of independent journalism | Information & Influence | Society & Culture | 9.7 | 1/24 | · | 43.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 17 | 20.6 |
| 166 | Data protection & digital rights | Governance & Integrity | Technology & Financials | 9.7 | 1/24 | · | 26.1 | 3.0 | 28.4 | 10 | 20.3 |
| 167 | Platform power over public discourse | Information & Influence | Society & Culture | 10.4 | 2/24 | · | 37.7 | 3.0 | 7.7 | 14 | 20.1 |
| 168 | Disaster risk finance | Financial Strength | Energy & Environment | 9.0 | 1/24 | · | 32.5 | 2.8 | 20.1 | 12 | 20.1 |
| 169 | Reskilling & education technology | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 6.3 | 1/24 | · | 37.0 | 4.0 | 22.0 | 17 | 20.1 |
| 170 | Space weather exposure | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 4.9 | 1/24 | · | 32.5 | 1.5 | 34.6 | 15 | 20.1 |
| 171 | GNSS & timing dependence | Strategic Infrastructure | Technology & Financials | 9.0 | 2/24 | · | 33.6 | 2.5 | 17.3 | 14 | 19.8 |
| 172 | Dams, reservoirs & flood defence | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 9.0 | 2/24 | · | 38.8 | 0.4 | 10.1 | 12 | 19.7 |
| 173 | Post-quantum cryptography transition | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 6.3 | 0/24 | · | 26.9 | 5.6 | 34.5 | 12 | 19.7 |
| 174 | Smart cities & buildings | Strategic Infrastructure | Society & Culture | 6.3 | 0/24 | · | 35.0 | 0.7 | 24.7 | 15 | 19.7 |
| 175 | Household debt & housing affordability | Financial Strength | Society & Culture | 11.1 | 1/24 | · | 33.8 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 14 | 19.2 |
| 176 | Energy poverty | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 14.6 | 3/24 | · | 31.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 12 | 19.1 |
| 177 | Transnational repression & diaspora politics | Information & Influence | Society & Culture | 6.9 | 1/24 | · | 40.1 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 17 | 19.1 |
| 178 | Digital & services trade | Trade & Investment | Technology & Financials | 9.7 | 2/24 | · | 24.2 | 24.7 | 14.0 | 11 | 19.0 |
| 179 | Advanced nuclear | Critical Technology | Energy & Environment | 9.7 | 2/24 | · | 37.8 | 0.4 | 5.7 | 14 | 19.0 |
| 180 | Seismic & geophysical hazard | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 7.6 | 1/24 | 1 | 34.5 | 0.3 | 16.9 | 12 | 18.9 |
| 181 | Organised crime & illicit economies | National Security | Society & Culture | 7.6 | 0/24 | · | 28.7 | 9.8 | 19.8 | 13 | 18.7 |
| 182 | Gene editing & cell therapies | Critical Technology | Health & Modern Science | 11.1 | 2/24 | · | 25.2 | 0.3 | 17.4 | 7 | 18.5 |
| 183 | Autonomous vehicles | Production & Innovation | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 4.2 | 0/24 | · | 25.5 | 3.6 | 37.1 | 14 | 18.2 |
| 184 | Citizen participation & deliberative democracy | Governance & Integrity | Society & Culture | 5.6 | 0/24 | · | 44.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 19 | 18.2 |
| 185 | Hydrogen & low-carbon fuels | Production & Innovation | Energy & Environment | 8.3 | 0/24 | · | 24.5 | 0.3 | 25.1 | 10 | 18.0 |
| 186 | Solar & storage cost collapse | Production & Innovation | Energy & Environment | 11.8 | 2/24 | 1 | 27.1 | 0.3 | 8.7 | 9 | 17.8 |
| 187 | AI diagnostics & predictive health | Human Capital | Health & Modern Science | 8.3 | 1/24 | · | 31.3 | 0.6 | 13.6 | 15 | 17.8 |
| 188 | Cash decline & payment dependence | Financial Strength | Technology & Financials | 11.1 | 2/24 | 1 | 20.0 | 1.0 | 20.9 | 6 | 17.7 |
| 189 | Censorship & surveillance | Information & Influence | Society & Culture | 11.8 | 2/24 | · | 29.4 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 12 | 17.7 |
| 190 | Quantum computing | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 4.9 | 0/24 | · | 29.2 | 11.1 | 22.3 | 13 | 17.6 |
| 191 | Cloud & edge computing | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 9.0 | 0/24 | · | 26.6 | 8.7 | 12.8 | 12 | 17.5 |
| 192 | Digital payments & FinTech | Financial Strength | Technology & Financials | 13.9 | 2/24 | 1 | 23.3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 6 | 17.1 |
| 193 | Emerging middle class | Trade & Investment | Society & Culture | 15.3 | 1/24 | 1 | 20.5 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 6 | 16.9 |
| 194 | Alternative proteins | Production & Innovation | Consumer, Food & Retail | 5.6 | 0/24 | · | 22.9 | 1.3 | 29.9 | 8 | 16.7 |
| 195 | Financial inclusion | Financial Strength | Technology & Financials | 11.1 | 1/24 | · | 26.2 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 10 | 16.7 |
| 196 | Heat stress & labour productivity | Human Capital | Energy & Environment | 10.4 | 1/24 | · | 28.6 | 0.2 | 5.0 | 10 | 16.6 |
| 197 | Demand flexibility & smart metering | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 5.6 | 0/24 | · | 37.0 | 0.7 | 8.1 | 16 | 16.5 |
| 198 | Robotics & automation | Production & Innovation | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 9.7 | 0/24 | · | 21.4 | 6.2 | 13.0 | 8 | 16.2 |
| 199 | Conscription & reserve mobilisation | National Security | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 6.9 | 2/24 | · | 29.1 | 26.3 | 0.0 | 13 | 16.0 |
| 200 | Water technology & desalination | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 12.5 | 1/24 | · | 25.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 7 | 16.0 |
| 201 | Care economy & unpaid work | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 4.2 | 0/24 | · | 33.0 | 0.9 | 12.9 | 15 | 15.4 |
| 202 | Electric transport | Strategic Infrastructure | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 12.5 | 2/24 | · | 21.2 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 8 | 15.3 |
| 203 | Biosecurity & dual-use biology | National Security | Health & Modern Science | 13.2 | 3/24 | · | 20.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 6 | 15.0 |
| 204 | Open-source intelligence & transparency | Information & Influence | Technology & Financials | 5.6 | 0/24 | · | 22.0 | 3.5 | 21.0 | 10 | 14.9 |
| 205 | Changing nature of work | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 8.3 | 1/24 | · | 29.4 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 11 | 14.6 |
| 206 | Building codes & resilient construction | Strategic Infrastructure | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 5.6 | 1/24 | 1 | 23.7 | 0.2 | 18.4 | 8 | 14.5 |
| 207 | Internet of Things | Strategic Infrastructure | Technology & Financials | 6.3 | 0/24 | · | 28.6 | 1.5 | 7.7 | 12 | 14.5 |
| 208 | Hygiene & sanitation | Human Capital | Health & Modern Science | 11.1 | 1/24 | · | 22.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 9 | 14.4 |
| 209 | Precision medicine & oncology | Critical Technology | Health & Modern Science | 5.6 | 1/24 | · | 28.0 | 0.4 | 10.3 | 9 | 14.2 |
| 210 | Ransomware & cybercrime | National Security | Technology & Financials | 11.8 | 1/24 | 1 | 19.3 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 7 | 14.1 |
| 211 | Antimicrobial resistance | Human Capital | Health & Modern Science | 8.3 | 1/24 | · | 26.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 11 | 13.8 |
| 212 | Biodiversity & nature loss | Strategic Infrastructure | Energy & Environment | 9.7 | 1/24 | · | 24.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 7 | 13.8 |
| 213 | Enhanced geothermal | Critical Technology | Energy & Environment | 5.6 | 1/24 | · | 31.5 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 13 | 13.7 |
| 214 | Insurance retreat & insurability | Financial Strength | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 13.2 | 3/24 | · | 15.3 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 4 | 13.6 |
| 215 | Commercial real estate stress | Financial Strength | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 5.6 | 1/24 | · | 28.4 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 13 | 13.2 |
| 216 | Carbon capture, utilisation & storage | Production & Innovation | Energy & Environment | 2.1 | 0/24 | · | 16.4 | 2.2 | 32.0 | 7 | 12.9 |
| 217 | Women's health & fertility care | Human Capital | Health & Modern Science | 1.4 | 0/24 | · | 27.2 | 0.6 | 18.8 | 13 | 12.9 |
| 218 | Falling fertility & population decline | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 6.9 | 1/24 | · | 24.4 | 0.7 | 4.4 | 9 | 12.9 |
| 219 | Gender equality & inclusion | Human Capital | Society & Culture | 6.3 | 0/24 | · | 27.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 10 | 12.8 |
| 220 | Geospatial technology | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 12.5 | 0/24 | · | 13.5 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 4 | 12.8 |
| 221 | Next-generation mobile networks | Strategic Infrastructure | Technology & Financials | 6.9 | 0/24 | · | 18.5 | 0.8 | 11.1 | 7 | 12.5 |
| 222 | Mental health | Human Capital | Health & Modern Science | 4.2 | 0/24 | · | 26.0 | 1.4 | 8.4 | 11 | 12.4 |
| 223 | Food waste | Production & Innovation | Consumer, Food & Retail | 4.2 | 0/24 | · | 21.7 | 2.0 | 14.5 | 8 | 12.4 |
| 224 | International student flows | Information & Influence | Society & Culture | 4.2 | 0/24 | · | 16.0 | 5.2 | 20.6 | 7 | 12.2 |
| 225 | Digital & remote care | Human Capital | Health & Modern Science | 6.3 | 0/24 | · | 25.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 12 | 12.2 |
| 226 | Sustainable finance | Financial Strength | Technology & Financials | 4.9 | 0/24 | · | 17.6 | 4.4 | 15.6 | 8 | 12.1 |
| 227 | Business dynamism & start-up formation | Production & Innovation | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 11.1 | 1/24 | · | 13.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 4 | 11.8 |
| 228 | Crypto-assets & tokenisation | Financial Strength | Technology & Financials | 7.6 | 0/24 | · | 19.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 6 | 11.2 |
| 229 | Satellite mega-constellations | Critical Technology | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 6.9 | 0/24 | · | 20.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 8 | 11.0 |
| 230 | Obesity & GLP-1 medicines | Human Capital | Health & Modern Science | 4.2 | 1/24 | 1 | 19.4 | 0.2 | 7.6 | 9 | 10.2 |
| 231 | Advanced materials | Critical Technology | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 6.3 | 0/24 | · | 14.0 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 6 | 10.0 |
| 232 | Space economy | Critical Technology | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 4.9 | 0/24 | · | 16.6 | 1.7 | 6.1 | 6 | 9.6 |
| 233 | Pollution & contaminants | Human Capital | Energy & Environment | 2.1 | 0/24 | · | 10.6 | 0.1 | 24.2 | 5 | 9.4 |
| 234 | Smart manufacturing & digital twins | Production & Innovation | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 6.3 | 0/24 | · | 8.8 | 1.3 | 11.4 | 3 | 9.2 |
| 235 | Fusion energy | Critical Technology | Energy & Environment | 5.6 | 1/24 | · | 17.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 7 | 9.1 |
| 236 | Diet & nutrition shifts | Production & Innovation | Consumer, Food & Retail | 4.9 | 0/24 | · | 14.5 | 0.3 | 6.3 | 5 | 8.9 |
| 237 | Biometrics | Critical Technology | Technology & Financials | 6.9 | 1/24 | · | 12.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 5 | 8.7 |
| 238 | Longevity science | Human Capital | Health & Modern Science | 4.9 | 1/24 | · | 13.3 | 0.1 | 7.3 | 6 | 8.7 |
| 239 | Circular materials & recycling | Production & Innovation | Energy & Environment | 3.5 | 0/24 | · | 9.5 | 4.4 | 8.6 | 4 | 7.3 |
| 240 | Construction productivity & housing supply | Production & Innovation | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 7.6 | 0/24 | · | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 6.8 |
| 241 | Carbon pricing & environmental taxes | Governance & Integrity | Energy & Environment | 5.6 | 0/24 | · | 7.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 6.1 |
| 242 | Drones & advanced air mobility | Production & Innovation | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 6.3 | 1/24 | · | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 5.7 |
| 243 | Online harms & safety | Information & Influence | Society & Culture | 2.8 | 0/24 | · | 10.6 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 4 | 5.4 |
| 244 | Sustainable consumption | Production & Innovation | Consumer, Food & Retail | 2.8 | 0/24 | · | 7.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3 | 4.1 |
| 245 | Retail & food-service automation | Production & Innovation | Consumer, Food & Retail | 2.1 | 0/24 | · | 7.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 3 | 3.6 |
| 246 | Ocean economy | Production & Innovation | Energy & Environment | 3.5 | 0/24 | · | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2.8 |
| 247 | Medical devices & neurotechnology | Production & Innovation | Health & Modern Science | 1.4 | 0/24 | · | 6.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3 | 2.8 |
| 248 | Rail & mass transit investment | Strategic Infrastructure | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 1.4 | 0/24 | · | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2.5 |
| 249 | Access over ownership | Production & Innovation | Consumer, Food & Retail | 1.4 | 0/24 | · | 3.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2 | 2.0 |
| 250 | Extended reality & immersive media | Production & Innovation | Technology & Financials | 0.7 | 0/24 | · | 3.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2 | 1.5 |
The nine capability domains
Each trend is assigned to the one domain of the National Capability Framework it bears on most. The assignment is a GINC desk judgement. Each trend also carries a theme, a second way to read the list by sector.
Hard · most sensitive
Strategic Infrastructure
34 trendsNational Security
28 trendsHuman Capital
32 trendsInformation & Influence
25 trendsGovernance & Integrity
26 trendsFinancial Strength
26 trendsProduction & Innovation
27 trendsTrade & Investment
26 trendsA trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel. Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Eigenvector centrality gathers in the densest cluster of the network and gives little to trends outside it. It is reported for completeness and carries the least weight in the composite.
Cite as
GINC (2027). GINC 250 v1.0: 250 trends scored against 24 scenarios. scenarios.ginc.org/trendsContent and data are published under CC BY 4.0.