GINC 250 / Fertiliser dependence

Trend · rank 64 of 250

Fertiliser dependence

Trade & InvestmentConsumer, Food & Retailfood systemstrade

Reliance on a few exporters and on natural gas for the nutrients that half of world food production needs.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank64 of 250
Sensitivity19.4 · rank 47
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank36.3 · rank 130
Eigenvector26.1
Betweenness28.7
Links13 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite32.3

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
6CriticalAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
5Very highSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
4HighEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highBreadbasket & food export concentrationEnergy & Environment94
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateCommodity price volatilityEnergy & Environment31
3ModerateTrade, shipping & logistics digitalisationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation45
3ModerateTariff escalationGeoeconomics & Statecraft46
3ModerateJust-in-time logistics & thin inventoriesGeoeconomics & Statecraft54
3ModerateAgricultural technologyConsumer, Food & Retail138
3ModerateAlternative proteinsConsumer, Food & Retail194
3ModerateFood wasteConsumer, Food & Retail223