GINC 250 / Tariff escalation

Trend · rank 46 of 250

Tariff escalation

Trade & InvestmentGeoeconomics & Statecrafttrade

The use of broad tariffs as a first-resort instrument, and the cycles of retaliation and truce that follow.

Broken out from Deglobalisation

Sensitivity and network position

Rank46 of 250
Sensitivity18.1 · rank 55
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank52.6 · rank 40
Eigenvector54.8
Betweenness4.6
Links21 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite34.3

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
6CriticalGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModerateEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
2LowEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
4HighExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
4HighEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
4HighDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
4HighFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
4HighForeign direct investment slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft52
4HighCarbon border adjustmentsEnergy & Environment121
4HighRegional trade agreementsGeoeconomics & Statecraft139
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateCommodity price volatilityEnergy & Environment31
3ModerateIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
3ModerateTrade, shipping & logistics digitalisationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation45
3ModerateJust-in-time logistics & thin inventoriesGeoeconomics & Statecraft54
3ModerateRare earth processing concentrationEnergy & Environment61
3ModerateFertiliser dependenceConsumer, Food & Retail64
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateCritical minerals supplyEnergy & Environment82
3ModerateBreadbasket & food export concentrationEnergy & Environment94
3ModerateDigital & services tradeTechnology & Financials178