GINC 250 / Trade, shipping & logistics digitalisation

Trend · rank 45 of 250

Trade, shipping & logistics digitalisation

Trade & InvestmentIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportationtradelogistics

Digital customs, trade finance and supply-chain visibility, automated warehousing and delivery, and the digitalisation and decarbonisation of shipping and ports.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank45 of 250
Sensitivity20.8 · rank 35
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank46.4 · rank 64
Eigenvector44.4
Betweenness10.3
Links17 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite34.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
4HighGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
3ModeratePandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
2LowMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highJust-in-time logistics & thin inventoriesGeoeconomics & Statecraft54
5Very highPort & shipping concentrationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation124
4HighSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
4HighDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
4HighFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateCommodity price volatilityEnergy & Environment31
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
3ModerateIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
3ModerateTariff escalationGeoeconomics & Statecraft46
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateForeign direct investment slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft52
3ModerateFertiliser dependenceConsumer, Food & Retail64
3ModerateCarbon border adjustmentsEnergy & Environment121
3ModerateRegional trade agreementsGeoeconomics & Statecraft139