GINC 250 / Maritime chokepoint dependence

Trend · rank 32 of 250

Maritime chokepoint dependence

National SecurityIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportationtradeconflict

Reliance of energy, food and trade on a few straits and canals, and on the insurers and navies that keep them open.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank32 of 250
Sensitivity24.3 · rank 25
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank51.2 · rank 45
Eigenvector43.6
Betweenness8.6
Links20 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite37.7

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
6CriticalMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
5Very highEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
3ModerateHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
4HighArmed conflict at post-war highsGeoeconomics & Statecraft20
4HighSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
4HighMiddle East instabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft26
4HighMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
3ModerateHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
3ModerateRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
3ModerateRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
3ModeratePrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
3ModerateTrade, shipping & logistics digitalisationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation45
3ModerateNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
3ModerateArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
3ModerateDefence industrial base & munitionsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation93
3ModerateDrone & autonomous warfareIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation98
3ModerateTerrorism & violent extremismSociety & Culture99
3ModeratePort & shipping concentrationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation124
3ModerateSubsea cable & pipeline vulnerabilityIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation126