GINC 250 / Middle East instability

Trend · rank 26 of 250

Middle East instability

National SecurityGeoeconomics & Statecraftconflictfossil

Recurrent conflict from the Gulf to the Levant, with direct consequences for energy, shipping and displacement.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank26 of 250
Sensitivity25.0 · rank 21
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above, 3 Critical
PageRank48.0 · rank 57
Eigenvector40.6
Betweenness16.1
Links18 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite38.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
6CriticalEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
6CriticalMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
2LowEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highArmed conflict at post-war highsGeoeconomics & Statecraft20
4HighMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
4HighRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
4HighPrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
4HighMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
3ModerateHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateEnergy import dependenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft29
3ModerateRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
3ModerateIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
3ModerateNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
3ModerateArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
3ModerateFossil fuel resurgenceEnergy & Environment95
3ModerateTerrorism & violent extremismSociety & Culture99
3ModerateState fragility & intrastate violenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft116