GINC 250 / Arctic & polar competition

Trend · rank 87 of 250

Arctic & polar competition

National SecurityGeoeconomics & Statecraftgeoeconomicsconflict

New sea routes and resources opening as ice retreats, and military positioning around them.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank87 of 250
Sensitivity9.7 · rank 180
Breadth0 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank54.0 · rank 33
Eigenvector60.0
Betweenness2.9
Links24 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite29.3

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
5Very highTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
4HighAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
4HighArmed conflict at post-war highsGeoeconomics & Statecraft20
4HighRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
4HighRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
4HighIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
4HighNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
3ModerateRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateMiddle East instabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft26
3ModerateEnergy import dependenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft29
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
3ModeratePrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
3ModerateSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
3ModerateDefence technologyIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation110
3ModerateDiplomatic capacity under strainGeoeconomics & Statecraft115
3ModerateArms control erosionGeoeconomics & Statecraft122
3ModerateEspionage & insider threatGeoeconomics & Statecraft145
3ModerateConscription & reserve mobilisationGeoeconomics & Statecraft199