GINC 250 / Arms control erosion

Trend · rank 122 of 250

Arms control erosion

National SecurityGeoeconomics & Statecraftdefenceinstitutions

The lapse of treaties and verification regimes for nuclear, conventional and emerging weapons, with little to replace them.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank122 of 250
Sensitivity13.9 · rank 113
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank39.4 · rank 108
Eigenvector36.3
Betweenness1.0
Links17 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite25.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
4HighMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
4HighRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
4HighNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
4HighDefence technologyIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation110
4HighConscription & reserve mobilisationGeoeconomics & Statecraft199
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateArmed conflict at post-war highsGeoeconomics & Statecraft20
3ModerateHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
3ModerateRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
3ModeratePrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
3ModerateMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
3ModerateArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
3ModerateDefence industrial base & munitionsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation93
3ModerateDrone & autonomous warfareIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation98
3ModerateMilitarisation of spaceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation104
3ModerateDiplomatic capacity under strainGeoeconomics & Statecraft115