GINC 250 / Defence industrial base & munitions

Trend · rank 93 of 250

Defence industrial base & munitions

National SecurityIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportationdefencemanufacturing

The capacity to produce and replenish weapons and ammunition at the rate a long conflict consumes them.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank93 of 250
Sensitivity15.3 · rank 90
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank38.5 · rank 116
Eigenvector34.1
Betweenness16.6
Links16 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite28.5

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
4HighHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
4HighRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
4HighMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
4HighDrone & autonomous warfareIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation98
4HighDefence technologyIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation110
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
3ModerateRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
3ModeratePrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
3ModerateIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
3ModerateNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
3ModerateReshoring & localised manufacturingIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation75
3ModerateMilitarisation of spaceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation104
3ModerateArms control erosionGeoeconomics & Statecraft122
3ModerateConscription & reserve mobilisationGeoeconomics & Statecraft199