GINC 250 / Reshoring & localised manufacturing

Trend · rank 75 of 250

Reshoring & localised manufacturing

Production & InnovationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportationmanufacturinggeoeconomics

Production moved closer to demand for resilience, enabled by automation, additive manufacturing and smaller plants.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank75 of 250
Sensitivity15.3 · rank 85
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank31.7 · rank 153
Eigenvector25.2
Betweenness43.5
Links11 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite31.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
5Very highSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
4HighEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModeratePandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
5Very highManufacturing overcapacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft117
4HighRobotics & automationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation198
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
3ModerateRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateDefence industrial base & munitionsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation93
3ModerateRegional medicines manufacturingHealth & Modern Science127
3ModerateSmart manufacturing & digital twinsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation234