GINC 250 / Deglobalisation

Trend · rank 8 of 250

Deglobalisation

Trade & InvestmentSociety & Culturegeoeconomicstrade

The fragmentation of trade, capital and technology flows into regional blocs as security is prioritised over efficiency.

Broken out into Tariff escalation · Friend-shoring & regional trade blocs

Sensitivity and network position

Rank8 of 250
Sensitivity31.3 · rank 5
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above, 3 Critical
PageRank79.7 · rank 8
Eigenvector81.3
Betweenness10.2
Links31 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite55.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
6CriticalSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
6CriticalGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModerateEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
2LowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
5Very highExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
5Very highEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
5Very highFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
4HighShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
4HighTrade, shipping & logistics digitalisationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation45
4HighTariff escalationGeoeconomics & Statecraft46
4HighRegional trade agreementsGeoeconomics & Statecraft139
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateEnergy import dependenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft29
3ModerateCommodity price volatilityEnergy & Environment31
3ModeratePharmaceutical supply concentrationHealth & Modern Science40
3ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
3ModerateIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateForeign direct investment slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft52
3ModerateJust-in-time logistics & thin inventoriesGeoeconomics & Statecraft54
3ModerateRare earth processing concentrationEnergy & Environment61
3ModerateFertiliser dependenceConsumer, Food & Retail64
3ModerateLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateReshoring & localised manufacturingIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation75
3ModerateCritical minerals supplyEnergy & Environment82
3ModerateBreadbasket & food export concentrationEnergy & Environment94
3ModerateCarbon border adjustmentsEnergy & Environment121
3ModerateDigital & services tradeTechnology & Financials178