GINC 250 / Regional trade agreements

Trend · rank 139 of 250

Regional trade agreements

Trade & InvestmentGeoeconomics & Statecrafttradeinstitutions

Deep agreements among willing partners, from the Pacific to the African continental area, as global rules stall.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank139 of 250
Sensitivity10.4 · rank 167
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank37.6 · rank 123
Eigenvector46.7
Betweenness0.3
Links16 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite23.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
4HighGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
1Very lowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
4HighSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
4HighDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
4HighTariff escalationGeoeconomics & Statecraft46
4HighForeign direct investment slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft52
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
3ModerateTrade, shipping & logistics digitalisationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation45
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateJust-in-time logistics & thin inventoriesGeoeconomics & Statecraft54
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateCarbon border adjustmentsEnergy & Environment121
3ModerateDigital & services tradeTechnology & Financials178