GINC 250 / Supply-chain concentration

Trend · rank 3 of 250

Supply-chain concentration

Trade & InvestmentGeoeconomics & Statecraftgeoeconomicstrade

Dependence on one country or firm for critical inputs, from rare earth magnets and chips to medicines and fertiliser.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank3 of 250
Sensitivity31.3 · rank 6
Breadth6 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank97.1 · rank 2
Eigenvector97.7
Betweenness86.4
Links38 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite77.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
6CriticalSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
4HighMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
4HighPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
4HighGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
6CriticalEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
6CriticalFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
5Very highExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
5Very highDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
4HighShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
4HighPharmaceutical supply concentrationHealth & Modern Science40
4HighTrade, shipping & logistics digitalisationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation45
4HighTariff escalationGeoeconomics & Statecraft46
4HighJust-in-time logistics & thin inventoriesGeoeconomics & Statecraft54
4HighRare earth processing concentrationEnergy & Environment61
4HighCritical minerals supplyEnergy & Environment82
4HighRegional trade agreementsGeoeconomics & Statecraft139
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
3ModerateWeakening multilateral institutionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft18
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateEnergy import dependenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft29
3ModerateCommodity price volatilityEnergy & Environment31
3ModerateTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
3ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
3ModerateIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
3ModerateAI chips & accelerator supplyTechnology & Financials44
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateResearch security & science decouplingGeoeconomics & Statecraft51
3ModerateForeign direct investment slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft52
3ModerateFertiliser dependenceConsumer, Food & Retail64
3ModerateGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
3ModerateLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateReshoring & localised manufacturingIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation75
3ModerateBreadbasket & food export concentrationEnergy & Environment94
3ModerateCarbon border adjustmentsEnergy & Environment121
3ModeratePort & shipping concentrationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation124
3ModerateDigital & services tradeTechnology & Financials178