GINC 250 / AI chips & accelerator supply

Trend · rank 44 of 250

AI chips & accelerator supply

Critical TechnologyTechnology & Financialscomputegeoeconomics

The specialised processors that train and run AI, designed by a few firms and made almost entirely in one place.

Broken out from Advanced semiconductors

Sensitivity and network position

Rank44 of 250
Sensitivity16.7 · rank 73
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank50.5 · rank 47
Eigenvector40.6
Betweenness20.3
Links21 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite34.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
6CriticalSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
5Very highGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
4HighRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
6CriticalAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
6CriticalLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
4HighCompute scaling & AI infrastructureTechnology & Financials17
4HighDigital sovereignty & data localisationTechnology & Financials50
4HighFrontier model concentrationTechnology & Financials63
4HighQuantum computingTechnology & Financials190
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateArtificial intelligenceTechnology & Financials27
3ModerateTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
3ModerateResearch security & science decouplingGeoeconomics & Statecraft51
3ModerateRare earth processing concentrationEnergy & Environment61
3ModerateCritical minerals supplyEnergy & Environment82
3ModerateOpen-weight AI diffusionTechnology & Financials134
3ModerateHumanoid roboticsTechnology & Financials157
3ModerateCloud & edge computingTechnology & Financials191
3ModerateAdvanced materialsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation231