GINC 250 / Artificial intelligence

Trend · rank 27 of 250

Artificial intelligence

Critical TechnologyTechnology & Financialsai

General-purpose machine intelligence, from large language models to autonomous agents, reshaping productivity, labour and capital allocation across every sector.

Broken out into AI safety & governance · Frontier model concentration · Open-weight AI diffusion · AI-accelerated science

Sensitivity and network position

Rank27 of 250
Sensitivity27.1 · rank 15
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank49.5 · rank 53
Eigenvector9.6
Betweenness22.2
Links19 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite38.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
6CriticalSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
4HighBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModerateHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
3ModeratePolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highAutomated AI researchTechnology & Financials119
5Very highOpen-weight AI diffusionTechnology & Financials134
4HighCompute scaling & AI infrastructureTechnology & Financials17
4HighAI-accelerated scienceTechnology & Financials56
4HighFrontier model concentrationTechnology & Financials63
4HighAI agents & knowledge-work automationTechnology & Financials128
4HighHumanoid roboticsTechnology & Financials157
3ModerateAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
3ModerateAI chips & accelerator supplyTechnology & Financials44
3ModerateDigital sovereignty & data localisationTechnology & Financials50
3ModeratePublic-sector AI adoptionTechnology & Financials66
3ModerateCapital concentration in AIGeoeconomics & Statecraft74
3ModerateAI-mediated informationTechnology & Financials97
3ModerateGraduate labour market squeezeSociety & Culture132
3ModerateSynthetic media & deepfakesSociety & Culture150
3ModerateAI safety & governanceTechnology & Financials152
3ModerateReskilling & education technologySociety & Culture169
3ModerateAutonomous vehiclesIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation183
3ModerateQuantum computingTechnology & Financials190