GINC 250 / AI safety & governance

Trend · rank 152 of 250

AI safety & governance

Governance & IntegrityTechnology & Financialsaiinstitutions

Evaluation, control and international rules for advanced AI: what is tested, who verifies it and who is liable.

Broken out from Artificial intelligence

Sensitivity and network position

Rank152 of 250
Sensitivity10.4 · rank 163
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank41.2 · rank 98
Eigenvector5.9
Betweenness9.4
Links19 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite21.8

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
4HighRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highPublic-sector AI adoptionTechnology & Financials66
4HighAdaptive regulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft118
4HighAutomated AI researchTechnology & Financials119
3ModerateState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateCompute scaling & AI infrastructureTechnology & Financials17
3ModerateArtificial intelligenceTechnology & Financials27
3ModeratePublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
3ModerateFrontier model concentrationTechnology & Financials63
3ModerateAI-mediated informationTechnology & Financials97
3ModerateOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
3ModerateCivil service capability & payGeoeconomics & Statecraft125
3ModerateAI agents & knowledge-work automationTechnology & Financials128
3ModerateGraduate labour market squeezeSociety & Culture132
3ModerateOpen-weight AI diffusionTechnology & Financials134
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
3ModerateHumanoid roboticsTechnology & Financials157
3ModerateReskilling & education technologySociety & Culture169
3ModerateAutonomous vehiclesIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation183