GINC 250 / Regulatory capture & lobbying power

Trend · rank 148 of 250

Regulatory capture & lobbying power

Governance & IntegrityGeoeconomics & Statecraftinstitutionsinequality

The influence of concentrated industries over the rules that govern them.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank148 of 250
Sensitivity10.4 · rank 166
Breadth0 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank46.4 · rank 63
Eigenvector6.3
Betweenness2.4
Links21 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite22.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModeratePolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
3ModerateInequalitySociety & Culture25
3ModerateEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
3ModeratePublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
3ModeratePolarisation & populismSociety & Culture39
3ModerateErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
3ModerateTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
3ModerateFiscal rules & budget credibilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft58
3ModerateCorruption & kleptocracyGeoeconomics & Statecraft62
3ModeratePublic-sector AI adoptionTechnology & Financials66
3ModerateOfficial statistics & data capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft81
3ModerateIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
3ModerateOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
3ModerateAdaptive regulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft118
3ModerateCivil service capability & payGeoeconomics & Statecraft125
3ModerateExecutive overreach & emergency powersSociety & Culture141
3ModerateRule of law & judicial independenceSociety & Culture146
3ModerateAI safety & governanceTechnology & Financials152
3ModerateCentral bank independence under pressureGeoeconomics & Statecraft160
3ModerateCitizen participation & deliberative democracySociety & Culture184