GINC 250 / Inequality

Trend · rank 25 of 250

Inequality

Human CapitalSociety & Cultureinequality

Widening gaps in income, wealth and opportunity within nations, and the politics that follows from them.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank25 of 250
Sensitivity25.0 · rank 19
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank49.4 · rank 55
Eigenvector2.5
Betweenness37.2
Links18 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite39.3

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
4HighRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
4HighSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModerateFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
3ModerateEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
2LowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
1Very lowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
4HighYouth unemployment & lack of opportunitySociety & Culture78
4HighInformal employmentSociety & Culture113
4HighLearning loss & education qualitySociety & Culture154
3ModerateDemographic pressure in young nationsSociety & Culture28
3ModerateEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
3ModeratePolarisation & populismSociety & Culture39
3ModerateBrain drain & talent migrationSociety & Culture92
3ModerateAgeing populationSociety & Culture106
3ModerateMalnutritionSociety & Culture112
3ModerateGraduate labour market squeezeSociety & Culture132
3ModerateTalent & labour shortagesSociety & Culture137
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
3ModerateHousehold debt & housing affordabilitySociety & Culture175
3ModerateEmerging middle classSociety & Culture193
3ModerateCare economy & unpaid workSociety & Culture201
3ModerateChanging nature of workSociety & Culture205
3ModerateGender equality & inclusionSociety & Culture219