GINC 250 / Youth unemployment & lack of opportunity

Trend · rank 78 of 250

Youth unemployment & lack of opportunity

Human CapitalSociety & Culturework skillsinequality

Young people unable to find work that matches their education, a standing source of emigration and unrest.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank78 of 250
Sensitivity19.4 · rank 42
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank43.6 · rank 81
Eigenvector2.5
Betweenness19.9
Links15 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite30.3

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
5Very highRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
4HighEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModerateMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highInformal employmentSociety & Culture113
5Very highLearning loss & education qualitySociety & Culture154
5Very highGender equality & inclusionSociety & Culture219
4HighInequalitySociety & Culture25
4HighBrain drain & talent migrationSociety & Culture92
4HighGraduate labour market squeezeSociety & Culture132
4HighChanging nature of workSociety & Culture205
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateDemographic pressure in young nationsSociety & Culture28
3ModerateEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
3ModeratePolarisation & populismSociety & Culture39
3ModerateAI agents & knowledge-work automationTechnology & Financials128
3ModerateTalent & labour shortagesSociety & Culture137
3ModerateReskilling & education technologySociety & Culture169
3ModerateHousehold debt & housing affordabilitySociety & Culture175