Scenarios 2027 / Scenarios
Rated at Standard Severe. Likelihood type: systemic. Source of scores: ginc-desk-v0.4. Upside scenario: impact levels measure the scale of change, not loss.
The maize in the demonstration plot is the same height as the neighbour's and yields twice as much. It was edited to keep its leaves open in a dry spell, and it has just come through one. The extension officer no longer visits; the advice arrives on a phone, in the farmer's language, with the price at three markets. Fertiliser is half what it cost in 2022, made with cheap power in a plant two hundred kilometres away where it used to cross two oceans. For the first time the country's grain reserve is full from its own harvest. The finance ministry cuts the food import line and the subsidy line in the same budget. World wheat and rice prices are a fifth lower than they were and have stayed there for three seasons. On the prairies and the pampas the mood is different. Land prices are down, the co-operative has merged twice, and the farm lobby wants export credits. A regulator in one capital has spent four years reviewing varieties its neighbours approved in one; its farmers buy the seed across the border. The nutrition surveys show the result two years later: stunting down by a third in the districts where yields rose first.
The dateline is illustrative, not a forecast. The narrative is hypothetical; the historical anchors below are real events.
Staple yields in the world's low-yield regions rise by a quarter within a decade. Gene-edited and climate-resilient varieties, cheaper nitrogen, precision irrigation and digital advice reach smallholders at scale across Africa and South Asia. Staple prices fall by a fifth and stay there. Nations that import their food gain twice, through cheaper imports and larger harvests of their own. Farm incomes in the big exporting nations fall, some land comes out of production, and the gains go first to countries with seed systems, roads and regulators able to approve new varieties.
A shock most would count as progress. It is not upside for everyone: each record names who gains and who loses. Impact levels measure the scale of change, in either direction, and loads mark the capabilities a nation needs in order to capture the gain or absorb the loss.
| Event | Date | What happened | Calibrates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Revolution | 1960s to 1980s | High-yielding wheat and rice varieties, fertiliser and irrigation more than doubled cereal yields across Asia | scale and speed of a yield shift |
| Bt cotton in India | 2002 onward | An insect-resistant variety reached most of the cotton area within a decade | speed of adoption by smallholders |
| Gene-edited foods reach market | 2021 | A gene-edited tomato went on sale in Japan, among the first such foods sold to consumers | regulatory path for editing |
| Precision Breeding Act | 2023 | England created a lighter regulatory route for gene-edited crops distinct from transgenic ones | regulatory divergence |
| Fertiliser price spike | 2022 | Prices doubled after the invasion of Ukraine; smallholders in Africa cut use | the input constraint |
| African yield gap | 2020s | Cereal yields in sub-Saharan Africa remain well under half the world average | room to rise |
Shown at their preset values. Parameters are not adjustable in this release and nothing on this page is computed from them. Custom settings run (Phase B) but are labelled 'non-standard run' and excluded from comparisons.
| Parameter | Default | Range or options | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yield gain in low-yield regions | 25 per cent | 10–50 | — |
| Fall in staple prices | 20 per cent | 10–35 | — |
| Years to reach scale | 10 years | 5–15 | — |
| Regulatory acceptance of gene editing | most markets | options: few / all | — |
| Fall in fertiliser cost | 50 per cent | 20–70 | — |
| Smallholder reach | 60 per cent | 30–90 | — |
High: capability band shifts expected under current plans. Medium: band shifts under 'none' policy response only. Low: strain without band shift. Loads are judgement-based until the Atlas connects. Domains link to the Atlas.
| Domain | Load | Channel |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | ||
| Defence and security | Low | fewer food-driven crises |
| Strategic infrastructure | High | seed systems, irrigation, storage and rural roads |
| Critical technology | High | crop science, gene editing and fertiliser production |
| Soft | ||
| Government effectiveness | High | variety approval, extension and reserve policy |
| Human capital | High | nutrition, child health and rural incomes |
| Influence and cohesion | Medium | rural politics in exporting nations; food diplomacy |
| Economic | ||
| Macro-financial | Medium | import bills, subsidies and inflation |
| Industry, trade and supply | High | agricultural trade; exporter income |
| Energy and resources | High | land, water and fertiliser use |
| Region | Exposure | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| North America | Medium | Exporter: lower prices and farm incomes |
| Europe | Low | Slower regulation; modest price gain for consumers |
| China | Medium | Large importer of feed; strong domestic crop science |
| Indo-Pacific | Medium | Rice importers gain; Australia, Thailand and Vietnam lose export income |
| South Asia | High | Large smallholder populations; yield and nutrition gains |
| Gulf and Middle East | High | Import dependence above 80 per cent for staples |
| Africa | High | The widest yield gap and the largest gain |
| Latin America and Caribbean | Medium | Brazil and Argentina lose export income; Central America gains |
| Russia and Eurasia | Medium | Russia and Ukraine lose export leverage |
| Indicator | Source | Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Cereal yields by region | FAO | — |
| Gene-edited variety approvals by country | — | — |
| FAO Food Price Index | FAO | — |
| Fertiliser prices | World Bank | — |
| Area under improved varieties | CGIAR | — |
| Child stunting rates | UNICEF, WHO | — |
| Farmland prices in exporting nations | — | — |
From the GINC 250: trends rated Very high or Critical for this scenario. All S22 trend scores.
| Rating | Band or level | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Likelihood, two years | 2Unlikely | Gene-edited crops are on sale in a few markets and drought-tolerant varieties are spreading in Africa, but seed systems, regulation and extension move slowly. A Standard Severe lift in two years is unlikely. |
| Likelihood, ten years | 4Likely | The Green Revolution doubled Asian cereal yields in about fifteen years; the tools now are faster. |
| Systemic impact | 3Significant | Level 3 as a gain: lower staple prices worldwide and less pressure on land and water. |
| National impact | 4Major | Level 4 for import-dependent, low-yield nations, where food security is the first constraint on everything else. |
| Confidence | medium | The science is proven; adoption depends on seed systems and regulation. |
Source of scores: ginc-desk-v0.4. Confidence refers to the rating, not the scenario. Calibration sources are listed with the anchors above and on the methodology page.
Contested assumptions for the panel to resolve.
No signed commentary in this build.
0.4.0 · active0.4.0 · 3 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.4 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.GINC (2027). Scenario S22 Agricultural yield revolution, Scenario Library v0.4. scenarios.ginc.org/library/agricultural-yield-revolutionContent and data are published under CC BY 4.0.