{
  "id": "S22",
  "slug": "agricultural-yield-revolution",
  "title": "Agricultural yield revolution",
  "version": "0.4.0",
  "status": "active",
  "orientation": "upside",
  "family": "C",
  "short_title": "Yield revolution",
  "thematics": [
    "climate-energy-resources",
    "demographics-human-capital"
  ],
  "likelihood_type": "systemic",
  "likelihood_note": null,
  "scores": {
    "likelihood_2y": {
      "band": 2,
      "rationale": "Gene-edited crops are on sale in a few markets and drought-tolerant varieties are spreading in Africa, but seed systems, regulation and extension move slowly. A Standard Severe lift in two years is unlikely."
    },
    "likelihood_10y": {
      "band": 4,
      "rationale": "The Green Revolution doubled Asian cereal yields in about fifteen years; the tools now are faster."
    },
    "impact_systemic": {
      "level": 3,
      "rationale": "Level 3 as a gain: lower staple prices worldwide and less pressure on land and water."
    },
    "impact_national": {
      "level": 4,
      "rationale": "Level 4 for import-dependent, low-yield nations, where food security is the first constraint on everything else."
    },
    "confidence": {
      "level": "medium",
      "reason": "The science is proven; adoption depends on seed systems and regulation."
    },
    "priority": 8,
    "tier": "III",
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.4"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "onset": "gradual (years)",
    "duration": "5 years",
    "warning": "months",
    "scope": "global",
    "origin": "accidental (technological)",
    "external_support": "partial",
    "policy_response": "current plans",
    "recovery_horizon": "structural"
  },
  "summary": "Staple yields in the world's low-yield regions rise by a quarter within a decade. Gene-edited and climate-resilient varieties, cheaper nitrogen, precision irrigation and digital advice reach smallholders at scale across Africa and South Asia. Staple prices fall by a fifth and stay there. Nations that import their food gain twice, through cheaper imports and larger harvests of their own. Farm incomes in the big exporting nations fall, some land comes out of production, and the gains go first to countries with seed systems, roads and regulators able to approve new varieties.",
  "distribution": {
    "gains": [
      "Food-importing, low-yield nations",
      "Smallholder farmers who adopt",
      "Consumers everywhere, through lower prices",
      "Children in the first districts to adopt"
    ],
    "loses": [
      "Grain-exporting nations and their farmers",
      "Owners of farmland in exporting regions",
      "Nations whose regulators lag",
      "Suppliers of imported fertiliser"
    ]
  },
  "narrative": {
    "dateline": "May 2032",
    "text": "The maize in the demonstration plot is the same height as the neighbour's and yields twice as much. It was edited to keep its leaves open in a dry spell, and it has just come through one. The extension officer no longer visits; the advice arrives on a phone, in the farmer's language, with the price at three markets. Fertiliser is half what it cost in 2022, made with cheap power in a plant two hundred kilometres away where it used to cross two oceans. For the first time the country's grain reserve is full from its own harvest. The finance ministry cuts the food import line and the subsidy line in the same budget. World wheat and rice prices are a fifth lower than they were and have stayed there for three seasons. On the prairies and the pampas the mood is different. Land prices are down, the co-operative has merged twice, and the farm lobby wants export credits. A regulator in one capital has spent four years reviewing varieties its neighbours approved in one; its farmers buy the seed across the border. The nutrition surveys show the result two years later: stunting down by a third in the districts where yields rose first."
  },
  "anchors": [
    {
      "shock_id": "green-revolution-1960",
      "date": "1960s to 1980s",
      "event": "Green Revolution",
      "what_happened": "High-yielding wheat and rice varieties, fertiliser and irrigation more than doubled cereal yields across Asia",
      "calibrates": "scale and speed of a yield shift"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "bt-cotton-in-india-2002",
      "date": "2002 onward",
      "event": "Bt cotton in India",
      "what_happened": "An insect-resistant variety reached most of the cotton area within a decade",
      "calibrates": "speed of adoption by smallholders"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "gene-edited-foods-reach-market-2021",
      "date": "2021",
      "event": "Gene-edited foods reach market",
      "what_happened": "A gene-edited tomato went on sale in Japan, among the first such foods sold to consumers",
      "calibrates": "regulatory path for editing"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "precision-breeding-act-2023",
      "date": "2023",
      "event": "Precision Breeding Act",
      "what_happened": "England created a lighter regulatory route for gene-edited crops distinct from transgenic ones",
      "calibrates": "regulatory divergence"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "fertiliser-price-spike-2022",
      "date": "2022",
      "event": "Fertiliser price spike",
      "what_happened": "Prices doubled after the invasion of Ukraine; smallholders in Africa cut use",
      "calibrates": "the input constraint"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "african-yield-gap-2020",
      "date": "2020s",
      "event": "African yield gap",
      "what_happened": "Cereal yields in sub-Saharan Africa remain well under half the world average",
      "calibrates": "room to rise"
    }
  ],
  "parameters": {
    "common": {
      "severity": {
        "major": "major",
        "severe": "severe",
        "extreme": "extreme"
      },
      "duration": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "5 years",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "onset": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "gradual (years)",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "warning": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "months",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "scope": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "global",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "origin": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "accidental (technological)",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "external_support": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "partial",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "concurrency": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "standalone",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "policy_response": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "current plans",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "recovery_horizon": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "structural",
        "extreme": null
      }
    },
    "specific": [
      {
        "name": "Yield gain in low-yield regions",
        "default": "25 per cent",
        "range": "10–50",
        "unit": "per cent",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Fall in staple prices",
        "default": "20 per cent",
        "range": "10–35",
        "unit": "per cent",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Years to reach scale",
        "default": "10 years",
        "range": "5–15",
        "unit": "years",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Regulatory acceptance of gene editing",
        "default": "most markets",
        "range": "options: few / all",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Fall in fertiliser cost",
        "default": "50 per cent",
        "range": "20–70",
        "unit": "per cent",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Smallholder reach",
        "default": "60 per cent",
        "range": "30–90",
        "unit": "per cent",
        "note": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "transmission": [
    "New varieties are approved and seed is multiplied.",
    "Cheaper fertiliser and digital advice reach smallholders.",
    "Yields rise in low-yield regions; harvests are more reliable.",
    "Staple prices fall; import bills and subsidies shrink.",
    "Nutrition improves; rural incomes rise where farmers sell more.",
    "Exporters lose income; marginal land leaves production.",
    "Regulatory laggards import the seed or fall behind."
  ],
  "loading": [
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "defence-security",
      "load": "Low",
      "channel": "fewer food-driven crises"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "seed systems, irrigation, storage and rural roads"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "critical-technology",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "crop science, gene editing and fertiliser production"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "government-effectiveness",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "variety approval, extension and reserve policy"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "human-capital",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "nutrition, child health and rural incomes"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "influence-cohesion",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "rural politics in exporting nations; food diplomacy"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "macro-financial",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "import bills, subsidies and inflation"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "industry-trade-supply",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "agricultural trade; exporter income"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "energy-resources",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "land, water and fertiliser use"
    }
  ],
  "stakeholders": {
    "government": {
      "exposure": "Food import bills, subsidy budgets and the speed of regulators",
      "actions": [
        "Create a fast route to approve edited varieties",
        "Invest in seed multiplication and rural roads",
        "Rebuild grain reserves from domestic harvests"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Variety approvals",
        "Yield surveys",
        "Staple price indices"
      ],
      "relevance": 3
    },
    "technology": {
      "exposure": "Seed, crop analytics and low-carbon fertiliser",
      "actions": [
        "Build local seed and advisory businesses",
        "Site fertiliser plants near cheap power"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Seed sales by variety",
        "Advisory service reach"
      ],
      "relevance": 5
    },
    "investors": {
      "exposure": "Seed and input firms up; farmland and exporter agribusiness down",
      "actions": [
        "Test farmland and agribusiness holdings on staples a fifth lower"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Farmland prices",
        "Fertiliser price indices"
      ],
      "relevance": 4
    },
    "public": {
      "exposure": "Cheaper food and better nutrition; lower farm incomes in exporting regions",
      "actions": [],
      "watch": [
        "Food price indices",
        "Child nutrition surveys"
      ],
      "relevance": 4
    }
  },
  "regions": [
    {
      "region": "north-america",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Exporter: lower prices and farm incomes"
    },
    {
      "region": "europe",
      "exposure": "Low",
      "rationale": "Slower regulation; modest price gain for consumers"
    },
    {
      "region": "china",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Large importer of feed; strong domestic crop science"
    },
    {
      "region": "indo-pacific",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Rice importers gain; Australia, Thailand and Vietnam lose export income"
    },
    {
      "region": "south-asia",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Large smallholder populations; yield and nutrition gains"
    },
    {
      "region": "gulf-middle-east",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Import dependence above 80 per cent for staples"
    },
    {
      "region": "africa",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "The widest yield gap and the largest gain"
    },
    {
      "region": "latin-america",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Brazil and Argentina lose export income; Central America gains"
    },
    {
      "region": "russia-eurasia",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Russia and Ukraine lose export leverage"
    }
  ],
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "Cereal yields by region",
      "source": "FAO",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Gene-edited variety approvals by country",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "FAO Food Price Index",
      "source": "FAO",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Fertiliser prices",
      "source": "World Bank",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Area under improved varieties",
      "source": "CGIAR",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Child stunting rates",
      "source": "UNICEF, WHO",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Farmland prices in exporting nations",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    }
  ],
  "compounds": {
    "triggers": [
      {
        "id": "S20",
        "note": "rural incomes and food security support growth"
      }
    ],
    "triggered_by": [
      {
        "id": "S15",
        "note": "research acceleration"
      },
      {
        "id": "S16",
        "note": "cheap power for fertiliser"
      }
    ],
    "amplified_by": [],
    "triggered_by_other": [],
    "amplifying_trends": [
      "falling cost of gene editing",
      "climate stress on harvests",
      "digital advice for smallholders",
      "fertiliser dependence"
    ]
  },
  "open_questions": [
    "Whether a decade-long rise is a shock or a trend.",
    "How to rate exporting nations whose farm sector shrinks.",
    "Whether consumer and regulatory resistance to gene editing is a parameter or a separate scenario."
  ],
  "commentary": null,
  "overview": {
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.4",
    "lenses": {
      "political": "The grain reserve is **full from the country's own harvest**. On the prairies the farm lobby wants export credits.",
      "economic": "Wheat and rice are **a fifth cheaper** for three seasons. The food import line and the subsidy line are cut in one budget.",
      "social": "Stunting falls by **a third** in the districts where yields rose first.",
      "technological": "Maize edited to keep its leaves open in a dry spell **yields twice as much**; advice arrives by phone.",
      "legal": "One regulator takes **four years** over varieties its neighbours approved in one; its farmers buy seed across the border.",
      "environmental": "Fertiliser is made with cheap power two hundred kilometres away; **marginal land leaves production**."
    },
    "regions": {
      "north-america": "An exporter: **land prices are down** and co-operatives merge.",
      "europe": "Slower regulation; a **modest gain** for consumers.",
      "china": "A large importer of feed with **strong crop science** of its own.",
      "indo-pacific": "Rice importers gain; **Australia, Thailand and Vietnam** lose export income.",
      "south-asia": "Large smallholder populations: **yield and nutrition gains**.",
      "gulf-middle-east": "Import dependence **above 80 per cent** for staples: the import bill falls.",
      "africa": "The **widest yield gap** and the largest gain.",
      "latin-america": "**Brazil and Argentina** lose export income; Central America gains.",
      "russia-eurasia": "Russia and Ukraine **lose export leverage**."
    }
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "edition": 2027,
      "rank": null,
      "L2y": 2,
      "L10y": 4,
      "impact_systemic": 3,
      "impact_national": 4,
      "confidence": "medium"
    }
  ],
  "changelog": [
    {
      "version": "0.4.0",
      "date": "2026-10-03",
      "change": "Entered the Library at v0.4 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores."
    }
  ],
  "citation": "GINC (2027). Scenario S22 Agricultural yield revolution, Scenario Library v0.4. scenarios.ginc.org/library/agricultural-yield-revolution"
}