The ranked ten by relevance

Relevance is on a scale of 1 to 5. Phase A development default, derived from the loading table: each group reads two working domains; High counts 2, Medium 1, Low 0; the score is the sum plus one. The panel split replaces it from Phase B.

Relevance	Scenario	Family	Exposure	L2y	Sys	Nat	Rank
4/5	Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Economic and trade	Controlled inputs and foreign standards	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	4SevereSevere	5
4/5	AI diffusion shock S13	Technology and infrastructure	The shock is also the opportunity	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	4SevereSevere	7
4/5	Pandemic S14	Health	Remote operations, health data, misinformation	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	8
3/5	Global financial crisis S03	Economic and trade	Venture funding and data-centre financing	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	1
3/5	Chokepoint closure S05	Geopolitical and security	Data-centre power and diesel backup	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	2
3/5	Single-supplier cut-off S02	Economic and trade	—	5Highly likelyHighly likely	3SignificantSignificant	4SevereSevere	3
3/5	Energy supply shock S09	Energy, climate and resources	Data-centre power contracts	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	4SevereSevere	6
2/5	Legitimacy crisis S07	Geopolitical and security	Platforms, electoral systems, telecoms	4LikelyLikely	2ModerateModerate	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	4
2/5	Food and water shock S11	Energy, climate and resources	Forecasting, irrigation, cold chain	3PossiblePossible	3SignificantSignificant	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	9
2/5	Sovereign funding crisis S04	Economic and trade	Payment and cloud service continuity under sanctions	3PossiblePossible	2ModerateModerate	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	10

Actions and what to watch

Drawn from each scenario's technology block and grouped by scenario. An item that appears under more than one scenario is listed once.

Geoeconomic confrontation

S01

Actions

• Dual-qualify suppliers
• Segment product lines by bloc

Watch

• Entity-list additions
• End-user rules

Rapid AI diffusion shock

S13

Actions

• Diversify model providers
• Invest in domestic capability where it is strategic

Watch

• Provider pricing and terms changes

Pandemic with a novel pathogen

S14

Actions

• Continuity plans for 20 per cent absence
• Health-data interoperability

Watch

• Workforce absence indices

Global financial crisis

S03

Actions

• Extend runway
• Reduce single-lender dependence

Watch

• Private-credit redemptions

Maritime chokepoint closure

S05

Actions

• Fuel contracts and demand-response

Watch

• Diesel availability

Single-supplier cut-off

S02

Actions

• Inventory bills of materials to the component level
• Dual-source where the supplier share exceeds 50 per cent

Watch

• Export-control notices

Energy supply shock

S09

Actions

• Long-term PPAs
• On-site generation
• Demand flexibility

Watch

• Industrial tariff announcements

Political legitimacy crisis

S07

Actions

• Election integrity programmes
• Transparency of political advertising
• Resilience of electoral infrastructure

Watch

• Coordinated inauthentic behaviour

Food and water system shock

S11

Actions

• Yield and water analytics for governments

Watch

• Crop condition indices

Sovereign funding crisis

S04

Actions

• Sovereign-cloud and offline fallbacks

Watch

• Correspondent banking withdrawals