The ranked ten by relevance

Relevance is on a scale of 1 to 5. Phase A development default, derived from the loading table: each group reads two working domains; High counts 2, Medium 1, Low 0; the score is the sum plus one. The panel split replaces it from Phase B.

Relevance	Scenario	Family	Exposure	L2y	Sys	Nat	Rank
5/5	Global financial crisis S03	Economic and trade	Jobs, mortgages, pensions	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	1
5/5	AI diffusion shock S13	Technology and infrastructure	Careers and education choices	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	4SevereSevere	7
5/5	Pandemic S14	Health	Health, work and schooling	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	8
5/5	Food and water shock S11	Energy, climate and resources	Prices and availability	3PossiblePossible	3SignificantSignificant	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	9
5/5	Sovereign funding crisis S04	Economic and trade	Prices, fuel, medicines	3PossiblePossible	2ModerateModerate	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	10
4/5	Legitimacy crisis S07	Geopolitical and security	Information diet and safety	4LikelyLikely	2ModerateModerate	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	4
3/5	Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Economic and trade	Prices and jobs in export sectors	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	4SevereSevere	5
3/5	Energy supply shock S09	Energy, climate and resources	Bills and heating	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	4SevereSevere	6
2/5	Chokepoint closure S05	Geopolitical and security	Fuel prices and availability	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	2
2/5	Single-supplier cut-off S02	Economic and trade	Medicine availability	5Highly likelyHighly likely	3SignificantSignificant	4SevereSevere	3

Actions and what to watch

Drawn from each scenario's public block and grouped by scenario. An item that appears under more than one scenario is listed once.

Global financial crisis

S03

Actions

None listed

Watch

• Unemployment claims
• Mortgage rates

Rapid AI diffusion shock

S13

Actions

None listed

Watch

• Occupational exposure data

Pandemic with a novel pathogen

S14

Actions

• Household plans

Watch

• Official guidance channels

Food and water system shock

S11

Actions

None listed

Watch

• Subsidy and ration announcements

Sovereign funding crisis

S04

Actions

None listed

Watch

• FX parallel-market gap

Political legitimacy crisis

S07

Actions

None listed

Watch

• Official results channels
• Curfews

Geoeconomic confrontation

S01

Actions

• Household budget resilience

Watch

• Food and fuel prices

Energy supply shock

S09

Actions

None listed

Watch

• Price-cap announcements

Maritime chokepoint closure

S05

Actions

None listed

Watch

• Pump prices
• Rationing announcements

Single-supplier cut-off

S02

Actions

None listed

Watch

• Pharmacy shortage lists