Economic and tradeEconomic and trade
| ID | Scenario | Status | First edition | Editions ranked | Latest L2y | Latest impact | Rating history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S01 | Geoeconomic confrontation | active | 2027 | 2027 | 4LikelyLikely | 4SevereSevere4SevereSevere | |
| S02 | Single-supplier cut-off | active | 2027 | 2027 | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 3SignificantSignificant4SevereSevere | |
| S03 | Global financial crisis | active | 2027 | 2027 | 4LikelyLikely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic5CatastrophicCatastrophic | |
| S04 | Sovereign funding crisis | active | 2027 | 2027 | 3PossiblePossible | 2ModerateModerate5CatastrophicCatastrophic | |
| S19 | Coordinated sovereign debt reset ↗ upside | active | 2027 | — | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 2ModerateModerate4MajorMajor | |
| S20 | Emerging-market growth breakout ↗ upside | active | 2027 | — | 3PossiblePossible | 3SignificantSignificant4MajorMajor |
Geopolitical and securityGeopolitical and security
| ID | Scenario | Status | First edition | Editions ranked | Latest L2y | Latest impact | Rating history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S05 | Maritime chokepoint closure | active | 2027 | 2027 | 4LikelyLikely | 4SevereSevere5CatastrophicCatastrophic | |
| S06 | Hybrid campaign by a hostile state | active | 2027 | — | 4LikelyLikely | 2ModerateModerate3SignificantSignificant | |
| S07 | Political legitimacy crisis | active | 2027 | 2027 | 4LikelyLikely | 2ModerateModerate5CatastrophicCatastrophic | |
| S08 | Mass displacement shock | active | 2027 | — | 3PossiblePossible | 2ModerateModerate4SevereSevere | |
| S18 | Great-power détente and peace dividend ↗ upside | active | 2027 | — | 3PossiblePossible | 3SignificantSignificant4MajorMajor | |
| S21 | Middle East regional settlement ↗ upside | active | 2027 | — | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 3SignificantSignificant4MajorMajor |
Energy, climate and resourcesEnergy, climate and resources
| ID | Scenario | Status | First edition | Editions ranked | Latest L2y | Latest impact | Rating history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S09 | Energy supply shock | active | 2027 | 2027 | 4LikelyLikely | 4SevereSevere4SevereSevere | |
| S10 | Catastrophic disaster in the core | active | 2027 | — | 3PossiblePossible | 2ModerateModerate5CatastrophicCatastrophic | |
| S11 | Food and water system shock | active | 2027 | 2027 | 3PossiblePossible | 3SignificantSignificant5CatastrophicCatastrophic | |
| S16 | Energy abundance breakthrough ↗ upside | active | 2027 | — | 3PossiblePossible | 3SignificantSignificant5TransformativeTransformative | |
| S22 | Agricultural yield revolution ↗ upside | active | 2027 | — | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 3SignificantSignificant4MajorMajor |
Technology and infrastructureTechnology and infrastructure
| ID | Scenario | Status | First edition | Editions ranked | Latest L2y | Latest impact | Rating history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S12 | Critical infrastructure collapse | active | 2027 | — | 3PossiblePossible | 2ModerateModerate4SevereSevere | |
| S13 | Rapid AI diffusion shock | active | 2027 | 2027 | 3PossiblePossible | 4SevereSevere4SevereSevere | |
| S15 | Superintelligence takeoff ↗ upside | active | 2027 | — | 3PossiblePossible | 5TransformativeTransformative5TransformativeTransformative | |
| S23 | Digital public infrastructure leapfrog ↗ upside | active | 2027 | — | 4LikelyLikely | 2ModerateModerate4MajorMajor |
HealthHealth
| ID | Scenario | Status | First edition | Editions ranked | Latest L2y | Latest impact | Rating history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S14 | Pandemic with a novel pathogen | active | 2027 | 2027 | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic5CatastrophicCatastrophic | |
| S17 | Biomedical breakthrough wave ↗ upside | active | 2027 | — | 3PossiblePossible | 3SignificantSignificant4MajorMajor | |
| S24 | Hundred-day pandemic defence ↗ upside | active | 2027 | — | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor4MajorMajor |
Latest impact shows systemic, then national. The rating history plots two-year likelihood by edition; it holds one point until the second edition.