Maritime chokepoint closure

B Geopolitical and securityEconomic security and supply chainsClimate, energy and resourcesResilience and crisis preparedness

A major strait is closed to commercial traffic for 90 days by conflict, blockade, mining or insurer withdrawal, followed by months of partial recovery. Hormuz is the default: a fifth of seaborne oil and a similar share of LNG. Variants cover the Taiwan Strait, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb and Suez, the Turkish Straits, Panama and the Baltic approaches. The 2026 Hormuz closure is the primary anchor and supplies observed values for transits, prices, insurance and recovery.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

Edition	Rank	L2y	L10y	Systemic	National	Confidence	Edition view
2027	2	4Likely	5Highly likely	4Severe	5Catastrophic	high	Open

Versions

Version	Date	Change
0.2.0	2 October 2026	Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version: 0.2.0 · active
Change log: 0.2.0 · 2 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.
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Cite as

GINC (2027). Scenario S05 Maritime chokepoint closure, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/chokepoint-closure

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.

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