Scenarios / S11

S11 · active · v0.2.0 · food-water-system-shock

Food and water system shock

C Energy, climate and resourcesClimate, energy and resourcesEconomic security and supply chainsInformation integrity and social cohesion

Simultaneous crop failures in two major exporting regions, compounded by export bans, double staple prices for two seasons; or an upstream state restricts a shared river. v0.2 split this from the climate scenario because the Lloyd's food and water shock (US$5 trillion over five years) and Eurasia Group's 2026 'water weapon' show it as a distinct systemic risk, and because India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in April 2025 made water a live instrument.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

EditionRankL2yL10ySystemicNationalConfidenceEdition view
202793Possible4Likely3Significant5CatastrophicmediumOpen

Versions

VersionDateChange
0.2.02 October 2026Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version
0.2.0 · active
Change log
0.2.0 · 2 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.
Full change log
Cite asGINC (2027). Scenario S11 Food and water system shock, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/food-water-system-shockContent and data are published under CC BY 4.0.
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