Political legitimacy crisis

B Geopolitical and securityInformation integrity and social cohesionResilience and crisis preparedness

A contested election, court ruling, succession or austerity decision tips into a crisis of legitimacy: sustained disinformation and foreign interference, mass protest, fracture in the security forces, and institutional trust falling below the level at which the state can act. The scenario reworks v0.1's 'foreign interference and information collapse' to include the internal-order dimension that 2024–2025 made unavoidable: annulled elections, governments toppled by youth-led protest, and (per CFR's 2026 survey) political violence in the United States rated a top-tier contingency.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

Edition	Rank	L2y	L10y	Systemic	National	Confidence	Edition view
2027	4	4Likely	5Highly likely	2Moderate	5Catastrophic	medium	Open

Versions

Version	Date	Change
0.2.0	2 October 2026	Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version: 0.2.0 · active
Change log: 0.2.0 · 2 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.
Full change log

Cite as

GINC (2027). Scenario S07 Political legitimacy crisis, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/political-legitimacy-crisis

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.

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