Energy supply shock

C Energy, climate and resourcesClimate, energy and resourcesEconomic security and supply chains

Oil prices double and gas prices quadruple for 18 months after a Gulf conflict or a supply cut, with physical shortages for the most exposed importers. The Bank of England's 2025 stress scenario supplies the calibration (oil up more than 100 per cent, gas more than 300 per cent, inflation to 10 per cent, policy rates to 8 per cent). Distinct from S05: a chokepoint closure is one cause; pipeline cut-offs, sanctions and producer decisions are others, and the shock persists after the strait reopens.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

Edition	Rank	L2y	L10y	Systemic	National	Confidence	Edition view
2027	6	4Likely	5Highly likely	4Severe	4Severe	high	Open

Versions

Version	Date	Change
0.2.0	2 October 2026	Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version: 0.2.0 · active
Change log: 0.2.0 · 2 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.
Full change log

Cite asGINC (2027). Scenario S09 Energy supply shock, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/energy-supply-shockContent and data are published under CC BY 4.0.

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