Catastrophic disaster in the core

C Energy, climate and resourcesClimate, energy and resourcesResilience and crisis preparedness

A once-in-a-century flood, storm, fire, heatwave or earthquake strikes the nation's main population and economic centre. v0.2 widened the scenario from climate to seismic hazards, since the Swiss analysis ranks earthquake third of 44 hazards and the 2023 Türkiye–Syria and 2025 Myanmar earthquakes were the deadliest disasters of the period. Following the Swiss method, every nation is assessed at one common 'major' intensity so that hazards can be compared; the hazard type is a parameter.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

Edition	Rank	L2y	L10y	Systemic	National	Confidence	Edition view
2027	Not ranked	3Possible	4Likely	2Moderate	5Catastrophic	high	Open

Versions

Version	Date	Change
0.2.0	2 October 2026	Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version: 0.2.0 · active
Change log: 0.2.0 · 2 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.
Full change log

Cite as

GINC (2027). Scenario S10 Catastrophic disaster in the core, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/catastrophic-disaster-core

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.

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