Scenarios / S08

S08 · active · v0.2.0 · mass-displacement-shock

Mass displacement shock

B Geopolitical and securityDemographics and human capitalResilience and crisis preparednessInformation integrity and social cohesion

A nation receives arrivals equal to 1 to 3 per cent of its population within 12 months, from a neighbouring war, a disaster or a state collapse. Housing, health, schooling, labour markets and social cohesion are loaded at once, and the fiscal cost lands before any international burden-sharing. Switzerland ranks 'people seeking protection' fourth of 44 hazards; the WEF lists involuntary migration among its global risks. v0.2 added this scenario because v0.1 had no demographic shock.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

EditionRankL2yL10ySystemicNationalConfidenceEdition view
2027Not ranked3Possible4Likely2Moderate4SeveremediumOpen

Versions

VersionDateChange
0.2.02 October 2026Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version
0.2.0 · active
Change log
0.2.0 · 2 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.
Full change log
Cite asGINC (2027). Scenario S08 Mass displacement shock, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/mass-displacement-shockContent and data are published under CC BY 4.0.
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