Coordinated sovereign debt reset

A Economic and tradeEconomic security and supply chainsResilience and crisis preparedness

Official, Chinese and private creditors agree a single, time-bound treatment for about 50 debt-distressed nations: maturities extended, interest cut and principal written down where needed, with new multilateral lending alongside. Debt service falls by half for the nations treated and the saving is tied to health, education and infrastructure. It is the mirror of S04: the funding crisis resolved before it breaks. Creditors take losses, credit ratings fall before they recover, and nations that paid their debts on time ask what they gained.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

Edition	Rank	L2y	L10y	Systemic	National	Confidence	Edition view
2027	Not ranked	2Unlikely	3Possible	2Moderate	4Major	medium	Open

Versions

Version	Date	Change
0.3.0	3 October 2026	Entered the Library at v0.3 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version: 0.3.0 · active
Change log: 0.3.0 · 3 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.3 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.
Full change log

Cite as

GINC (2027). Scenario S19 Coordinated sovereign debt reset, Scenario Library v0.3. scenarios.ginc.org/library/sovereign-debt-reset

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.

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