Hybrid campaign by a hostile state

B Geopolitical and securityResilience and crisis preparednessAI, cyber and digitalInformation integrity and social cohesion

A hostile state runs a sustained, deniable campaign below the threshold of war: sabotage of subsea cables and energy assets, drone incursions, GNSS jamming, arson and parcel incendiaries, assassination plots, cyber intrusions, instrumentalised migration and information operations, over 12 months. v0.2 added this as the publishable form of state aggression; conventional invasion stays out of the public Library. Eurasia Group's Top Risk 5 for 2026 ('Russia's second front') and the UK National Risk Register's state-threats theme describe the same pattern.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

Edition	Rank	L2y	L10y	Systemic	National	Confidence	Edition view
2027	Not ranked	4Likely	5Highly likely	2Moderate	3Significant	medium	Open

Versions

Version	Date	Change
0.2.0	2 October 2026	Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version: 0.2.0 · active
Change log: 0.2.0 · 2 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.
Full change log

Cite as

GINC (2027). Scenario S06 Hybrid campaign by a hostile state, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/hybrid-campaign

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.

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