Scenarios / S02

S02 · active · v0.2.0 · single-supplier-cut-off

Single-supplier cut-off

A Economic and tradeEconomic security and supply chainsAI, cyber and digital

The dominant supplier of a critical input halts or licenses exports for a year. The input may be rare earth magnets, legacy semiconductors, active pharmaceutical ingredients, fertiliser, lithography tools or cloud compute. Substitution takes 18 to 36 months. Production lines, hospitals and farms discover their exposure through stoppages rather than audits. v0.2 widened this scenario from minerals and chips to any input with a supplier share above 40 per cent, following Norway's drug-shortage scenario and the Nexperia stoppage.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

EditionRankL2yL10ySystemicNationalConfidenceEdition view
202735Highly likely5Highly likely3Significant4SeverehighOpen

Versions

VersionDateChange
0.2.02 October 2026Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version
0.2.0 · active
Change log
0.2.0 · 2 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.
Full change log
Cite asGINC (2027). Scenario S02 Single-supplier cut-off, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/single-supplier-cut-offContent and data are published under CC BY 4.0.
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