Agricultural yield revolution

C Energy, climate and resourcesClimate, energy and resourcesDemographics and human capital

Staple yields in the world's low-yield regions rise by a quarter within a decade. Gene-edited and climate-resilient varieties, cheaper nitrogen, precision irrigation and digital advice reach smallholders at scale across Africa and South Asia. Staple prices fall by a fifth and stay there. Nations that import their food gain twice, through cheaper imports and larger harvests of their own. Farm incomes in the big exporting nations fall, some land comes out of production, and the gains go first to countries with seed systems, roads and regulators able to approve new varieties.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

Edition	Rank	L2y	L10y	Systemic	National	Confidence	Edition view
2027	Not ranked	2Unlikely	4Likely	3Significant	4Major	medium	Open

Versions

Version	Date	Change
0.4.0	3 October 2026	Entered the Library at v0.4 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version: 0.4.0 · active
Change log: 0.4.0 · 3 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.4 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.
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Cite as

GINC (2027). Scenario S22 Agricultural yield revolution, Scenario Library v0.4. scenarios.ginc.org/library/agricultural-yield-revolution

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.

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