Scenarios / S12

S12 · active · v0.2.0 · critical-infrastructure-collapse

Critical infrastructure collapse

D Technology and infrastructureAI, cyber and digitalResilience and crisis preparedness

The national power grid and communications fail for 72 hours and operate under rationing for 90 days. The cause may be cyber attack, physical sabotage, cascading technical failure or space weather; the scenario is origin-agnostic because the capability loaded is the same. v0.2 reframed v0.1's 'systemic cyber attack' around power, following Switzerland (electricity shortage second of 44 hazards), the UK National Risk Register (national electricity transmission failure rated catastrophic) and the Iberian blackout of April 2025.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

EditionRankL2yL10ySystemicNationalConfidenceEdition view
2027Not ranked3Possible4Likely2Moderate4SeverelowOpen

Versions

VersionDateChange
0.2.02 October 2026Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version
0.2.0 · active
Change log
0.2.0 · 2 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.
Full change log
Cite asGINC (2027). Scenario S12 Critical infrastructure collapse, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/critical-infrastructure-collapseContent and data are published under CC BY 4.0.
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