Global financial crisis

A Economic and tradeEconomic security and supply chainsResilience and crisis preparedness

An asset bubble bursts, credit freezes and the world enters a severe recession. The specification is the supervisory 'severely adverse' scenario that every major regulator tests banks against, applied here to nations: unemployment up 5.5 points to 10 per cent, house prices down 30 per cent, commercial property down 39 per cent, equities down half. v0.2 added this scenario because v0.1 had no generic financial crisis, and no respected scenario set omits one.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

Edition	Rank	L2y	L10y	Systemic	National	Confidence	Edition view
2027	1	4Likely	5Highly likely	5Catastrophic	5Catastrophic	medium	Open

Versions

Version	Date	Change
0.2.0	2 October 2026	Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version: 0.2.0 · active
Change log: 0.2.0 · 2 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.
Full change log

Cite as

GINC (2027). Scenario S03 Global financial crisis, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/global-financial-crisis

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.

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