Energy abundance breakthrough

C Energy, climate and resourcesClimate, energy and resourcesEconomic security and supply chains

Solar, batteries and one firm clean source (enhanced geothermal, advanced nuclear or fusion) fall far enough in cost that new electricity is cheaper than running existing fossil plant across most of the world. Wholesale power costs halve in adopting economies within five years. Oil demand peaks and the price settles 40 per cent lower for good. Importers gain a permanent tax cut; energy-intensive industry moves to where power is cheapest; hydrocarbon exporters lose the revenue their states run on. The shock is the speed: a transition expected over thirty years arrives in five.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

Edition	Rank	L2y	L10y	Systemic	National	Confidence	Edition view
2027	Not ranked	3Possible	4Likely	3Significant	5Transformative	medium	Open

Versions

Version	Date	Change
0.3.0	3 October 2026	Entered the Library at v0.3 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version: 0.3.0 · active
Change log: 0.3.0 · 3 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.3 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.
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Cite as

GINC (2027). Scenario S16 Energy abundance breakthrough, Scenario Library v0.3. scenarios.ginc.org/library/energy-abundance

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.

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