Scenarios / S21

S21 · active · v0.4.0 · middle-east-settlement

Middle East regional settlement

B Geopolitical and securityResilience and crisis preparednessClimate, energy and resourcesEconomic security and supply chains

The ceasefires of 2025 and 2026 are converted into a regional security framework. Iran, the Gulf states and Israel agree guarantees for shipping through Hormuz and the Red Sea, limits on missiles and enrichment under inspection, and sanctions relief in stages. Normalisation widens and reconstruction begins in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. The risk premium on Gulf energy falls and trade corridors from India to Europe open. The region gains most. Suppliers of arms, militias that live off conflict and oil exporters elsewhere that profited from the premium lose.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

EditionRankL2yL10ySystemicNationalConfidenceEdition view
2027Not ranked2Unlikely3Possible3Significant4MajorlowOpen

Versions

VersionDateChange
0.4.03 October 2026Entered the Library at v0.4 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version
0.4.0 · active
Change log
0.4.0 · 3 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.4 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.
Full change log
Cite asGINC (2027). Scenario S21 Middle East regional settlement, Scenario Library v0.4. scenarios.ginc.org/library/middle-east-settlementContent and data are published under CC BY 4.0.