Digital public infrastructure leapfrog

D Technology and infrastructureAI, cyber and digitalResilience and crisis preparednessDemographics and human capital

A state builds digital identity, instant payments and data exchange as public goods, and within five years most adults use them. Benefits are paid in minutes, tax collection rises, small firms get credit on their transaction history, and services that needed a queue need a phone. Governments that lagged a generation behind leap level with the best. The same rails make surveillance and exclusion easier: people without a phone or an identity are shut out, a single failure stops everything, and the banks and card networks that sat in the middle lose their margin.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

Edition	Rank	L2y	L10y	Systemic	National	Confidence	Edition view
2027	Not ranked	4Likely	5Highly likely	2Moderate	4Major	medium	Open

Versions

Version	Date	Change
0.4.0	3 October 2026	Entered the Library at v0.4 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version: 0.4.0 · active
Change log: 0.4.0 · 3 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.4 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.
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Cite as

GINC (2027). Scenario S23 Digital public infrastructure leapfrog, Scenario Library v0.4. scenarios.ginc.org/library/digital-state-leapfrog

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.

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