Scenarios / S18

S18 · active · v0.3.0 · great-power-detente

Great-power détente and peace dividend

B Geopolitical and securityEconomic security and supply chainsResilience and crisis preparednessInformation integrity and social cohesion

The United States and China reach a settlement that rolls back most tariffs and export controls, sets rules for AI and chips and lowers the temperature over Taiwan. A ceasefire in Ukraine becomes a signed agreement with sanctions relief in stages. Trade volumes recover, shipping and insurance costs fall and defence budgets stop rising. The peace dividend is real and uneven: industries built behind tariff walls lose protection, middle powers lose the leverage of being courted, and allies discover which of their interests were bargained away.

Rating history

One row per edition. Each edition page is frozen at release; corrections are published as errata.

EditionRankL2yL10ySystemicNationalConfidenceEdition view
2027Not ranked3Possible4Likely3Significant4MajorlowOpen

Versions

VersionDateChange
0.3.03 October 2026Entered the Library at v0.3 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.

Citation and downloads

Version
0.3.0 · active
Change log
0.3.0 · 3 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.3 as an upside scenario, with GINC desk scores.
Full change log
Cite asGINC (2027). Scenario S18 Great-power détente and peace dividend, Scenario Library v0.3. scenarios.ginc.org/library/great-power-detenteContent and data are published under CC BY 4.0.
Download JSONDownload CSV