GINC 250 / Water stress & transboundary water

Trend · rank 156 of 250

Water stress & transboundary water

Strategic InfrastructureEnergy & Environmentwaterconflict

Growing scarcity of fresh water and the use of shared rivers and aquifers as instruments of pressure between states.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank156 of 250
Sensitivity18.8 · rank 50
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank30.0 · rank 168
Eigenvector0.1
Betweenness0.1
Links8 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite21.6

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
5Very highAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
4HighMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highWater technology & desalinationEnergy & Environment200
4HighDams, reservoirs & flood defenceEnergy & Environment172
4HighBiodiversity & nature lossEnergy & Environment212
3ModerateClimate change & physical riskEnergy & Environment22
3ModerateEarly-warning systemsEnergy & Environment80
3ModerateEarth system tipping pointsEnergy & Environment105
3ModerateClimate adaptation & resilienceEnergy & Environment123
3ModerateHeat stress & labour productivityEnergy & Environment196