GINC 250 / Heat stress & labour productivity

Trend · rank 196 of 250

Heat stress & labour productivity

Human CapitalEnergy & Environmentclimatework skills

Working hours and health lost to extreme heat, heaviest in outdoor work and in cities without cooling.

Broken out from Climate change & physical risk

Sensitivity and network position

Rank196 of 250
Sensitivity10.4 · rank 168
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank28.6 · rank 178
Eigenvector0.2
Betweenness5.0
Links10 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite16.6

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
2LowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighClimate change & physical riskEnergy & Environment22
4HighClimate adaptation & resilienceEnergy & Environment123
3ModerateEarly-warning systemsEnergy & Environment80
3ModerateEarth system tipping pointsEnergy & Environment105
3ModerateClimate migrationSociety & Culture120
3ModerateWater stress & transboundary waterEnergy & Environment156
3ModerateDisaster risk financeEnergy & Environment168
3ModerateDams, reservoirs & flood defenceEnergy & Environment172
3ModerateSeismic & geophysical hazardEnergy & Environment180
3ModeratePollution & contaminantsEnergy & Environment233