GINC 250 / Climate adaptation & resilience

Trend · rank 123 of 250

Climate adaptation & resilience

Strategic InfrastructureEnergy & Environmentclimate

Forecasting, adaptation and resilience against intensifying storms, floods, heat and fire.

Broken out into Disaster risk finance · Early-warning systems

Sensitivity and network position

Rank123 of 250
Sensitivity14.6 · rank 95
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank43.8 · rank 80
Eigenvector0.5
Betweenness9.0
Links13 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite24.8

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
4HighFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
4HighAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
6CriticalClimate change & physical riskEnergy & Environment22
5Very highDams, reservoirs & flood defenceEnergy & Environment172
4HighClimate finance & loss and damageEnergy & Environment79
4HighEarly-warning systemsEnergy & Environment80
4HighEarth system tipping pointsEnergy & Environment105
4HighSeismic & geophysical hazardEnergy & Environment180
4HighHeat stress & labour productivityEnergy & Environment196
3ModerateElectrification of heat, transport & industryEnergy & Environment30
3ModerateClimate migrationSociety & Culture120
3ModerateWater stress & transboundary waterEnergy & Environment156
3ModerateDisaster risk financeEnergy & Environment168
3ModerateWater technology & desalinationEnergy & Environment200
3ModerateBiodiversity & nature lossEnergy & Environment212