GINC 250 / Climate migration

Trend · rank 120 of 250

Climate migration

Human CapitalSociety & Cultureclimatedemography

Displacement and relocation of populations driven by climate impacts, within and across borders.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank120 of 250
Sensitivity11.8 · rank 139
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank30.0 · rank 169
Eigenvector0.5
Betweenness41.5
Links11 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite25.3

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
4HighCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
4HighFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
2LowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighDemographic pressure in young nationsSociety & Culture28
3ModerateClimate change & physical riskEnergy & Environment22
3ModerateClimate finance & loss and damageEnergy & Environment79
3ModerateUrbanisationSociety & Culture91
3ModerateBrain drain & talent migrationSociety & Culture92
3ModerateEarth system tipping pointsEnergy & Environment105
3ModerateAgeing populationSociety & Culture106
3ModerateClimate adaptation & resilienceEnergy & Environment123
3ModerateAsylum & migration system strainSociety & Culture144
3ModerateHeat stress & labour productivityEnergy & Environment196
3ModerateFalling fertility & population declineSociety & Culture218