GINC 250 / Urbanisation

Trend · rank 91 of 250

Urbanisation

Strategic InfrastructureSociety & Culturecitiesdemography

Continued migration into cities, concentrating economic activity and straining housing and infrastructure.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank91 of 250
Sensitivity19.4 · rank 39
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank25.4 · rank 199
Eigenvector0.3
Betweenness40.8
Links8 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite28.8

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
5Very highEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
4HighPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
3ModerateMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
2LowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
3ModerateDemographic pressure in young nationsSociety & Culture28
3ModerateEarly-warning systemsEnergy & Environment80
3ModerateLocal & city government capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft96
3ModerateInfrastructure ageingEnergy & Environment109
3ModerateClimate migrationSociety & Culture120
3ModerateSmart cities & buildingsSociety & Culture174
3ModerateSeismic & geophysical hazardEnergy & Environment180
3ModerateBuilding codes & resilient constructionIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation206