GINC 250 / Local & city government capacity

Trend · rank 96 of 250

Local & city government capacity

Governance & IntegrityGeoeconomics & Statecraftinstitutionscities

The resources and competence of municipal and regional authorities, which carry the first response to most shocks.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank96 of 250
Sensitivity18.8 · rank 53
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank37.9 · rank 119
Eigenvector3.4
Betweenness19.3
Links13 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite28.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
5Very highCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
3ModeratePandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
3ModerateEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
2LowHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
1Very lowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
4HighPublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
4HighOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
3ModerateFiscal rules & budget credibilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft58
3ModerateCorruption & kleptocracyGeoeconomics & Statecraft62
3ModerateWhole-of-society resilienceGeoeconomics & Statecraft76
3ModerateOfficial statistics & data capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft81
3ModerateUrbanisationSociety & Culture91
3ModerateCivil service capability & payGeoeconomics & Statecraft125
3ModerateExecutive overreach & emergency powersSociety & Culture141
3ModerateAsylum & migration system strainSociety & Culture144